SPRINT/ROUTE/SPRINT

Play a horse that had been running well in sprint races, tried a route race unsuccessfully, and immediately returns to a sprint distance. This angle takes little effort to spot horses and produces its fair share of longshot winners.

In a sprint race (seven furlongs or less), look for horses that last raced in a route race (usually two turns and at a mile or greater). Previous to that route effort, the horse must have started in one or more sprints and showed some ability. Equally qualifying is a horse that runs dirt sprint, turf route, then dirt sprint again.

Usually the route effort is at a slower pace than the prior sprint competition, so the horse is able to get conditioning while not utilizing its top speed. Often these horses will remain on or close to the lead in the route race until the stretch and then fade dramatically. Even if the horse is well beaten at the finish of the route race, the horseplayer should not be deterred. When returning to the sprint distance, a much better effort can be expected.

Certain trainers, including Todd Pletcher, Al Stall Jr, have been known to hit with this move over thirty percent of the time. A top notch sprinter in a six or seven furlong race repeatedly finds itself contesting 1/2 miles in 44 or 45 seconds. The same horse may seem to coast in a route race, going a half in 47 or 48 seconds and will still fade in the route race since they lack the affinity for the distance, or are not conditioned to run for the duration of the route race.  

So if a sprinter is not suited to a route race, why would it be entered? Often times, trainers enter a newly claimed horse into a route to see how it fares, then if unsuccessful, move it back to a more comfortable sprint distance. Sometimes though, the entry pattern is simply part of the trainer’s larger plan to leg up a sprinter. This is a form of cross-training that trainers can use to give their sprinters a chance to exert themselves for a longer interval at a slower pace. Human weightlifters accomplish similar results through many repetitions at a lighter weight rather than only a few repetitions at the heaviest weight they can manage.

Requirements to play Sprint/Route/Sprint:

– The horse is entered in a sprint, following a losing effort at a route, with a prior sprint race showing some ability.

– The horse contested the pace in the route race, racing within two lengths of the lead for the first 1/2 mile or more.

– The finish position of the horse in the route race is not important.  The worse the finish, the better potential for longshot odds.

– A disqualifier is if the horse is returning to sprinting at a significantly higher class level than it has attempted in the past. For instance, a $25,000 claiming sprinter competes in a $25,000 claiming route then attempts a $40,000 claiming sprint.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through amazon.com and Xlibris Publishing (www.xlibris.com/ABettorWay.html

 

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