Race 14 (Saturday, March 31, 2018: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)
Last year, ALWAYS DREAMING won the Florida Derby (G1) before going on to win America’s most prestigious race, the Kentucky Derby (G1). This year, nine runners look to follow in ALWAYS DREAMING’s footstep. AUDIBLE and PROMISES FULFILLED, victors of the two big preps at Gulfstream Park, clash against consistent colt CATHOLIC BOY, the improving STRIKE POWER, and five other possible upsetters. Let’s take an in-depth look at each runner in the field:
#1 STRIKE POWER made his first start going two turns in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and ran a very good second to #4 PROMISES FULFILLED. Before that effort, he won the one-turn Swale Stakes (G3), which was his first race against winners. Second time routing, he may be able to take a step forward. Speed on the rail is always a longshot possibility at Gulfstream Park.
#2 MILLIONAIRE RUNNER has finished off the board in three straight starts against allowance optional claiming company and will need to completely turn it around to be competitive.
#3 TIPSHEET ran poorly in the Holy Bull (G2) and most recently finished third against allowance company. He’s another one that will need to pick up the pace to make an impact.
#4 PROMISES FULFILLED is one of two runners for trainer Dale Romans in this race. His only loss from four career starts came in the fall when he ran third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. His first start of 2018 was over this track in the Fountain of Youth (G2), where he defeated eight rivals, including #1 STRIKE POWER. Mark him down as a main contender.
#5 STORM RUNNER, the other Romans entrant, finished seventh in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at odds of 9/1. This isn’t an easier spot by any means. Improvement needed.
#6 CATHOLIC BOY scored a decisive victory in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct in November but most recently ran second to FLAMEAWAY in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay last month, who came back to run second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His only off-the-board finish in five career starts was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), where he ran fourth in a 14-horse field. Consistent guy merits respect.
#7 HOFBURG comes off a half-length win in a maiden special weight going a mile-and-a-sixteenth over this track. He is the least experienced runner in the field, with just two career starts to his name. The son of TAPIT is a half sibling to Grade I winner EMOLLIENT and is trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott.
#8 AUDIBLE was a dominant winner of the Holy Bull (G2) last month, winning the mile-and-a-sixteenth contest by five-and-a-half lengths with plenty left in the tank. He is a versatile type that has a high cruising speed, so expect him to be fairly close to the pace. Todd Pletcher trains and he has won this race a record four times, including with ALWAYS DREAMING last year.
#9 MISSISSIPPI is a well-bred colt that was purchased for $700,000 as a yearling. He broke his maiden three starts ago and has come back to run second in two allowance races. In the allowance race two starts ago, the son of PIONEEROFTHENILE ran second to NOBLE INDY, who came back to win the Louisiana Derby (G1). His most recent effort resulted in a neck loss to #5 STORM RUNNER. Adds blinkers today.
SELECTIONS
- #8 AUDIBLE – May be the real deal.
- #4 PROMISES FULFILLED – Game winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2).
- #1 STRIKE POWER – May improve second time routing.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 HOFBURG – Tons of upside.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over three others in exactas, then make a token win bet on my longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$15 Exacta: #8 AUDIBLE over #1 STRIKE POWER and #4 PROMISES FULFILLED and #6 CATHOLIC BOY ($45).
$5 Win: #7 HOFBURG
(Bankroll at -$140.00 after 2018 Week #4 Based on $50 Wagers; -$61.00 last Newsletter).
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