$300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (G2) – Gulfstream Park

Race 12 (Saturday, March 31, 2018: 5:22 p.m./ET: 2:22 p.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-old fillies)

A large field of 13 three-year-old fillies looks to capture the Gulfstream Oaks (G2) and take their talents to Kentucky on the first Friday in May, where the best three-year-old dirt fillies in the world will compete in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Let’s analyze the field, beginning with the rail post position:

#1 EIGHTY THIRTYONE broke her maiden sprinting at Mahoning Valley and came back to defeat allowance company at the same track. She goes a route of ground for the first time while facing a lot tougher company. Appears outclassed on paper.

#2 COACH ROCKS made her two-turn debut last time out and smoked the competition to win by eight lengths. However, she was facing maidens that afternoon and got an uncontested lead in a race that lacked pace. It’s also worth mentioning that she lost to #4 CACHE by nine lengths just two starts ago. Siding with others.

#3 TAKE CHARGE PAULA most recently ran second in the Davona Dale (G2). Also note that she is already a graded stakes winner, having won the Forward Gal (G3) over this track two starts back. Contender.

#4 CACHE was purchased for $500,000 as a yearling and while the daughter of DISTORTED HUMOR broke her maiden easily in her career debut, she came back to run fifth, beaten over five lengths, in the Davona Dale (G2). This is her first try going two turns and her pedigree suggests she should love going longer. Well-bred filly is worth considering.

#5 DAISY adds blinkers for trainer John Servis, who wins at a 20% clip when adding the hood on his trainees. This gal comes off a second place finish behind #8 C.S. INCHARGE in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, where she went off at even money. Before that effort, the Pennsylvania-bred daughter of BLAME won the Tempted Stakes (G3) and was fourth in the Demoiselle (G2) to graded stakes winner WONDER GADOT. Top jock John Velazquez rides.

#6 BLONDE BOMBER ran a big race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), finishing third at odds of 30/1. Since then, she has come back to finish off the board in two starts, including last time out when finishing behind #8 C.S. INCHARGE, #5 DAISY and #12 MIHRAB at Tampa Bay Downs. She’ll need to prove that Breeders’ Cup run was no fluke.

#7 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI has finished behind #3 TAKE CHARGE PAULA twice in her most recent two afternoon appearances. She’ll need to turn the tables on that rival while facing some tough new shooters in this spot.

#8 C.S. INCHARGE broke her maiden over this track on a rainy afternoon and came back to beat #5 DAISY and #12 MIHRAB in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay, her first try against winners. Appears she is gradually improving, but whether she has the class to beat the best in here remains to be seen.

#9 PRINCESS WARRIOR finished second in the Darley Alcibiades (G1) as a two-year-old but ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Her first race of 2018 was an even fourth place finish in the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3), although that race was on the turf. May be able to improve in this second start in her form cycle. One to consider.

#10 TELL YOUR MAMA has yet to win in eight career starts. She removes blinkers for trainer Bob Hess Jr. after a fourth place finish on March 23 at Santa Anita. Still a maiden, wheeling back quickly, shipping cross country and facing proven stakes competition, this ‘capper is passing.

#11 SILVER BAY broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park West on October 27 and came back to win an allowance race by a neck two weeks later. She hasn’t raced since then, however, and routes for the first time in this spot while facing a lot tougher than what she is used to seeing. Longshot.

#12 MIHRAB was third, beaten two lengths, behind #8 C.S INCHARGE and #5 DAISY in the Suncoast Stakes. She freshens for this race and adds blinkers for trainer Graham Motion, who wins at a 24% rate when adding the shades. That said, her only career win came in a seven-furlong sprint at Laurel against maiden company and she must deal with a poor post position in this race. Won’t be easy.

#13 ALTER MOON was well beaten in the Davona Dale (G2), which was her first start against winners. She has to turn the tables on four other rivals who finished in front of her that are also slated to run here while also having to overcome a horrific post position. A tall order.

SELECTIONS

1. #9 PRINCESS WARRIOR – Has right to improve off of last start.
2. #5 CACHE – Should enjoy two turns.
3. #3 TAKE CHARGE PAULA – Consistent and classy filly.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 DAISY – Blinkers on.

 WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$5 Exacta Box: #3 TAKE CHARGE PAULA and #5 CACHE and #9 PRINCESS WARRIOR ($30).

$20 Win: $9 PRINCESS WARRIOR

(Bankroll at -$140.00 after 2018 Week #4 Based on $50 Wagers; -$61.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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