Friday, March 30, 2018

$2,000,000 UAE Derby (G2) – Meydan Racecourse

Race 4 (Saturday, March 31, 2018: 9:30 a.m./ET 6:30 a.m./PT)

Mile and three sixteenths on the main track (three-year-olds)

The UAE Derby (G2) awards 100 points Kentucky Derby (G1) points to the winner. Breeders’ Cup winner MENDELSSOHN, also known by many as BEHOLDER’s brother, is out to prove himself as a Derby contender while talented and well regarded colt GOLD TOWN looks to continue his winning ways. Without further ado, let’s get to a closer review of the field:

#1 RAYYA faces boys after a decisive score in the UAE Oaks (G2) on March 1. She is just one of two runners to win at this distance (the other being #7 YULONG WARRIOR.) One to think about using.

#2 RUGGERO (JPN) makes his first start going farther than a mile after a third place finish in the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan. He’ll have to rebound and beat #8 TAIKI FERVEUR, who finished in front of him last time out, while also going up against some tougher company. Will go off at a price.

#3 RERIDE was an easy winner of the Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland Park and was flattered when the second place finisher, RUNAWAY GHOST, came back to win the Sunland Derby (G3). His only career loss came when he finished seven lengths behind talented runners ENTICED and PROMISES FULFILLED in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last fall. Wouldn’t dismiss the only American in the field.

#4 MENDELSSOHN won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last November and has since come back to win a minor stake over a synthetic surface in Ireland. This is his first try on dirt but he certainly has a right to like the new surface given he is a half sibling to BEHOLDER and by top sire SCAT DADDY, who has produced prodigy that can run on anything. We’ll see whether this dude has what it takes to be a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender.

#5 GOLD TOWN (GB) has won his last three races in fine style, including last time out when he demolished 14 runners in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (G3). That evening, he went to the front and never looked back, winning the race by an eye-popping 10 lengths. He is two-for-two at Meydan and is going better than ever right now. Off that last run, he’s the one to beat for Team Godolphin.

#6 SEAHENGE finished third behind stablemate #4 MENDELSSOHN last time out. Like his barn buddy, he’ll be trying dirt for the first time. Note that #9 THRREANDFOURPENCE ran second in that last race and he also enters here, so that makes two runners #6 SEAHENGE has to turn the tables on. May be in a bit too tough.

#7 YULONG WARRIOR won the Al Bastakiya Stakes over this track by 11 lengths on March 10, though the field he faced that evening wasn’t nearly as tough as what he finds here. The good news is that last run came at this mile and 3/16ths distance, meaning we don’t need to wonder whether he’ll like running this far. On the other hand, whether he is classy enough to beat the top contenders is the big question mark.

#8 TAIKI FERVEUR (JPN) was 60/1 in his lone graded stakes try and ran poorly. His most recent race, a second place finish in the Hyacinth Stakes last month, was average. The ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira rides, which is a positive, but this colt is another one that probably does not have the class to win this.

#9 THREEANDFOURPENCE finished second behind #9 MENDELSSOHN in the 32nd Patton Stakes on March 9. He was just second best that day, so he’ll need to make up some ground on the aforementioned rival. All career runs have been on turf and synthetics and his pedigree doesn’t scream dirt. I’ll pass.

SELECTIONS

  1. #5 GOLD TOWN – Looks like the real deal.
  2. #3 RERIDE – Easily defeated Sunland Derby (G3) winner.
  3. #4 MENDELSSOHN – Well bred colt looks to continue his winning ways on dirt.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 RAYYA – UAE Oaks (G2) winner tackles the boys.

 WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks in an exacta.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$25 Exacta Box: #3 RERIDE and #5 GOLD TOWN ($50).

(Bankroll at -$140.00 after 2018 Week #4 Based on $50 Wagers; -$61.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

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