Race 9 (Saturday, March 31, 2018: 12:50 p.m./ET; 9:50 a.m./PT)
Mile and a quarter on the main track (four-year-olds and upward)
One of the richest races in the world, the Dubai World Cup (G1), features a field of 10 superstars set to take part in the feature race on UAE’s richest night of racing. Let’s go contender by contender and analyze the field:
#1 AWARDEE was last seen running ninth in the February Stakes (G1) in Japan. He has not won since 2016 and will need a complete form reversal to be competitive in this race.
#2 NORTH AMERICA (GB) won the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1), defeating #10 THUNDER SNOW by almost six lengths. Off that last effort, it appears he is the local contender with the strongest chance to win. That said, he is facing some tough North American rivals this time around.
#3 GUNNEVERA went off at 13/1 in The Pegasus Invitational (G1) and finished third, beaten by GUN RUNNER and #9 WEST COAST. However, his two back effort, a tenth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), was poor. His best race makes him a candidate for an in the money placing, though he’ll probably need to run the race of his life to win.
#4 FURIA CRUZADA (CHI), thirteenth in this race last year, finished nine lengths behind #2 NORTH AMERICA and #10 THUNDER SNOW most recently in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1). Needs to really pick up the pace.
#5 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) ran second in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) three weeks ago over a sloppy track and wheels back quickly for trainer Bob Baffert. This six-year-old horse won the UAE Derby (G1) over this track in 2015 and scored his most significant win last year in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. All that said, he might be a notch below the best signed on in here.
#6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED is a mare facing the boys in her last start before motherhood. The Dallas Stewart trainee has won three races in a row, including a victory against SONGBIRD in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga, followed by a big win to cap off her 2017 in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Looks to end her racing career on a high note.
#7 TALISMANIC (GB) makes his dirt debut after winning an allowance prep race over a synthetic surface in France on March 6. This classy son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO won the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) in the fall and also finished second in the Longines Hong Kong Vase (G1) two races ago. Whether he can be as effective on dirt as he is on turf is the big question mark.
#8 PAVEL finished fourth in the San Pasqual (G2), suffering a nightmarish trip. The winner of the San Pasqual (G2), ACCELERATE, came back to win the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Now, he has to deal with the likes of GUNNERVERA, MUBTAAHIJ and WEST COAST, all of whom have easily defeated him in the past. Unless he improves, a minor award may be his ceiling.
#9 WEST COAST is the likely favorite and second Bob Baffert entrant in this race. He ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and second in the Pegasus Invitational (G1), both times to 2017 Horse of the Year GUN RUNNER. Over the summer, he easily defeated top three-year-olds in the Travers (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Has never finished off the board in 10 lifetime starts. Expect him to run big once again.
#10 THUNDER SNOW (IRE) will have to make up five lengths on #2 NORTH AMERICA, who defeated this guy in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1). ‘SNOW loves this track, having yet to finish worse than second in five starts over the Meydan dirt. That said, there are some tough North American shippers signed on to compete here, so this will be the acid test.
SELECTIONS
- #9 WEST COAST – Runs well over any surface.
- #2 NORTH AMERICA – Impressive in local prep.
- #8 PAVEL – A ‘trip’ play after trouble in his last start at SA.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED – Would be first female to win this race.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #9 WEST COAST
(Bankroll at -$140.00 after 2018 Week #4 Based on $50 Wagers; -$61.00 last Newsletter).
The post $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup (G1) – Meydan Racecourse appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER.
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