$400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – Tampa Bay Downs

Race 11 (Saturday, March 10, 2018: 5:20 p.m./ET; 2:20 p.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds)

STREET SENSE won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in 2006 and went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1). A dozen years later, 11 runners will attempt to follow up in STREET SENSE’S footsteps. Let’s dissect the field:

#1 ARAZI LIKE MOVE broke his maiden in August on debut, but has lost all five subsequent career starts against winners. Last time out, he finished 23 lengths behind WORLD OF TROUBLE. Next.

#2 TIZ MISCHIEF finished well behind AUDIBLE in the Fountain of Youth (G2) but still picked up the pieces late to run third. It was a solid effort in his first start of 2018 and he can improve off that effort. Contender from the Romans barn.

#3 VINO ROSSO is a Todd Pletcher trainee who adds blinkers after a third place finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3) over this track. He’ll need to turn the tables on #5 FLAMAWAY, who finished a length-and-a-quarter in front of him, but maybe the equipment change will help him improve. One to consider.

#4 GRANDPA KNOWS BEST makes his first start in four months for trainer Ken McPeek, who wins at a 17% clip with runners making their first start returning between 61-180 days. This colt won two races in a row at Churchill Downs before his four-month vacation, but he is facing stakes company for the first time now.

#5 FLAMEAWAY dueled on the lead and gamely fended off the talented CATHOLIC BOY and #3 VINO ROSSO to win the Sam F. Davis (G3) on February 10. Even though his last two victories have come in gate-to-wire fashion, he stalked the pace early when winning the Bourbon (G3) as a two-year-old, showing he is versatile and can sit off the pace if need be. In with a big chance once again.

#6 ENTICED will scratch and run in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct.

#7 FREE DROP BILLY will also scratch and run in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct.

#8 WORLD OF TROUBLE ‘freaked’ in the Pasco Stakes over this track, winning by almost 14 lengths. This is his first try going two turns, but his trainer wins at a 39% clip with runners going from sprint to route. Will be the acid test to see where he’s at.

#9 UNTAMED DOMAIN makes his first start on dirt and his second start off a three-month layoff after running third in the Danica Beach (G3) as the favorite. In his last start before the break, he ran a very good second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) to BEHOLDER’S brother (MENDELSSOHN) and also defeated a good group of runners in the Summer (G2) earlier in the fall. Interesting item.

#10 QUIP won an allowance race in October at Keeneland by six-and-a-half lengths but came back to disappoint in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), finishing eight lengths behind ENTICED. This is his first start since then and he sports a pair of five-furlong bullet works heading into this. Longshot contender.

#11 CALORIC broke his maiden for $25K and came back to win a $16K claimer at odds of 4/5 while being claimed. Sure, he may be better than a lower level claimer, but this bump up in class is significant. Looks outclassed.

SELECTIONS

1. #9 UNTAMED DOMAIN – Very good on the turf; can he duplicate on the dirt?
2. #5 FLAMEAWAY – Last win was not a fluke.
3. #3 VINO ROSSO – Blinkers on is a strong move for this barn.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY – # 10 Quip – WinStar/China Horse Club production.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll play an exacta box with my top three picks and make a straight win bet on my top pick.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win #9 UNTAMED DOMAIN

$5 Exacta Box: #3 VINO ROSSO and #5 FLAMEAWAY and #9 UNTAMED DOMAIN ($30).

(Bankroll at -$79.00 after 2018 Week #3 Based on $50 Wagers; +$105.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

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