$300,000 Gotham (G3) – Aqueduct

Race 10 (Saturday, March 10, 2018: 5:42 p.m./ET; 2:42 p.m./PT)

One mile on the main track (three-year-olds)

The Gotham Stakes (G3) is the final prep race for the prestigious Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). Let’s analyze the field in post position order:

#1 DIAL OPERATOR broke his maiden at first asking in July and came back six months later to defeat allowance company at Laurel, but has never raced farther than five-and-a-half furlongs. May take another step forward, but he is also facing a lot tougher company than what he’s used to seeing. Siding with others.

#2 COVE BLUE got his first career win two starts back in a maiden special weight seven-furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park, then came back to run third in an allowance race behind STORM RUNNER, who came back to finish seventh in the Fountain of Youth (G2) last week. Has shown speed in all five-career starts, so expect him to be forwardly placed once again.

#3 BEAUTIFUL SHOT makes his 2018 debut after a solid two-year-old season. He broke his maiden first time out against NERO, came back to win the Speakeasy Stakes while defeating graded stakes winner MOURINHO and finished 2017 with a third place finish behind the aforementioned rival and multiple stakes winner GREYVITOS. This colt sports a couple of snappy works heading into this race and trainer Keith Desormeaux wins at an 11% clip with runners making their first start between 61-180 days. Not out of the question. 

#4 WHERESHETOLDMETOGO was a dominant winner of the American Fabulous Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month, earning an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. However, this Maryland-bred son of EL PATRINO is 0-for-3 going a mile. Playing against.

#5 FIRENZE FIRE cuts back a furlong after a decent second place finish behind AVERY ISLAND in the Withers (G3) over this track and is one of two Grade I winners in the field. He’ll be plenty fit with the cutback in distance and it’s also worth noting he defeated #6 FREE DROP BILLY as a two-year-old when winning the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga. Top contender.

#6 FREE DROP BILLY may have lost to #5 FIRENZE FIRE in the Sanford (G3), but he turned the tables on that rival in his next start, when he finished in front of him in the Hopeful (G1). His first start in 2018 resulted in a solid second place finish behind AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull (G2). The one to beat.

#7 OLD TIME REVIVAL broke his maiden at Laurel Park three starts ago but has since come back to lose two minor stakes races. On paper, it appears this guy will have to pick up his feet to be competitive.

#8 NINE ROUTE has won his last three starts, all against New-York bred company. And even though he is three-for-three over this track, his speed figures are low compared to the best signed on in here. Mixed feelings.

#9 ENTICED ran great when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill in November but most recently disappointed when finishing almost 15 lengths behind AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull (G2). Maybe he needed that race to get into top shape as it was his first start in two-and-a-half months and it’s also worth noting some horses just don’t care for the Gulfstream Park main track.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 FIRENZE FIRE – Cuts back in distance and faces easier.
2. #6 FREE DROP BILLY – Obvious player.
3. #9 ENTICED – Last race will help odds for those who still believe.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY – #3 BEAUTIFUL SHOT – Hasn’t done much wrong.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’m playing an exacta box on my top pick and longshot value play.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$25 Exacta Box: #3 BEAUTIFUL SHOT and #5 FIRENZE FIRE ($50).

(Bankroll at -$79.00 after 2018 Week #3 Based on $50 Wagers; +$105.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

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