$400,000 San Felipe (G1) – Santa Anita Park

Race 6 (Saturday, March 10, 2018: 5:30 p.m./ET; 2:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds)

A tremendous 11-race card at The Great Race Place on Sunday includes a pivotal three-year-old Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race with 50 important Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on the line. Let’s take a closer look at the first big three-year-old clash of the season, between BOLT, MCKINZIE, and the six others set to face them:

#1 BOLT D’ORO hasn’t been seen since a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), where he suffered a very wide trip on both turns. Has been working well in preparation for his 2018 debut. Should be ready to fire off the bench.

#2 LOMBO broke his maiden going six-and-a-half furlongs two starts ago and came back to wire the field in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) last month. Not only did he get a very easy lead in the Lewis, but this time around he’s going against two monsters in #1 BOLT D’ORO and #4 MCKINZIE. The waters get deeper here.

#3 AYACARA (GB) sat off the pace and made up a ton of ground down the lane to finish two lengths behind LOMBO in the Robert B. Lewis (G2). He didn’t get much pace to chase last time but still ran on strongly. He’ll have to run by #1 BOLT D’ORO and #4 MCKINZIE this time though, which won’t be an easy task.

#4 MCKINZIE was a dominant winner of the Sham (G3) while defeating MY BOY JACK, who came back to win the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park over a sloppy surface last month. This Bob Baffert trainee has been working lights out in preparation for his second start of 2018. Another Baffert star?

#5 AQUILA was purchased for $685,000 at the OBS March two-year-old in training sale, so clearly this guy has been well regarded for quite some time. Most recently, this son of UNION RAGS won a maiden special weight by two-and-a-quarter lengths. Will need to take another step forward to be competitive.

#6 CALEXMAN broke his maiden on the turf at Del Mar in November in wire-to-wire fashion. In his first start against winners, he finished ten lengths behind the filly PAVED in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields, a race that didn’t come up nearly as strong as this one. On top of that, his lone dirt try resulted in an 18-length loss. Looking elsewhere.

#7 PEACE grinded out a victory against maiden special weight company two starts ago and came back to run poorly, losing by eight lengths to #2 LOMBO and #3 AYACARA in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Hall of Famer Richard Mandella removes the blinkers, so maybe that will help, but he will still need to run a lot faster than he did last time to be competitive in this spot.

#8 KANTHAKA broke his maiden going seven furlongs and came back to win the San Vicente (G2) at that same distance last time out, making a sweeping move on the far turn before racing away from his competition down the stretch. His pedigree suggests he may have distance limitations, though, as he is by top class sprinter JIMMY CREED out of a NOONMARK mare. It appears the talent is there to be a good one, but how far he wants to go remains to be seen.

SELECTIONS

1. #4 MCKINZIE – Connections named this one after a close friend.
2. #1 BOLT D’ORO – Sky’s the limit.
3. #3 AYACARA – Will be rolling late.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 KANTHAKA – Has plenty of talent.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #4 MCKINZIE

(Bankroll at -$79.00 after 2018 Week #3 Based on $50 Wagers; +$105.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

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