$300,000 American Oaks (G1) – Santa Anita Park

Race 7 (Saturday, December 30, 2017: 6:30 p.m./ET: 3:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and a quarter on the turf (three-year-old fillies)

Trainer Chad Brown has been a terror on the turf and he looks to continue that hot streak by shipping in two three-year-old fillies to Southern California for Saturday’s feature race at Santa Anita, the $300,000 American Oaks (G1). Let’s take a look at this talented field, starting from the rail out:

#1 MADAME DANCEALOT (IRE) won the San Clemente (G2) at Del Mar three starts back and has since completed the trifecta in two Grade 1’s: the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G1). She returns today off a two-and-a-half month layoff here for trainer Simon Callaghan, who wins at a 17% clip with runners making their first start off a 61-180 day break.

#2 KATHY’S SONG showed huge acceleration down the stretch when defeating older rivals in the Miss America Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on turf at Golden Gate Fields. Although she faced older rivals that day, the three-year-old restricted competition found here is tougher and she races at a mile-and-a-quarter now, which is a different ballgame than what she played up north.

#3 BERNINA STAR has failed to win four straight races, two of which came against allowance company. Improvement is needed.

#4 DADDY’S LIL DARLING only lost by a half-length in the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G1) at Keeneland and was most recently seen finishing third as the even money favorite in the Mrs. Revere (G2) at Churchill Downs. This East Coast shipper has a chance with her best run, but most of her wins have come against easier. Playing against her on the win end, but still feel she is a serious player in exotics.

#5 PANTSONFIRE (IRE) broke her maiden just two starts ago and came back to lose by a nose against winners in a solid allowance race. This gal is up against it class-wise and she is a deep closer. Needs the right set up to run by the best in here.

#6 BEAU RECALL (IRE) is an inconsistent type, having finished second in the Honeymoon (G2) and Del Mar Oaks (G1), while also finishing off the board in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1). An exotics placing may be her ceiling.

#7 DESERT DUCHESS looks for her fourth consecutive win for trainer Mike Maker. However, makes her first start in a graded stakes race, so whether she has the talent to beat the best in here remains to be seen.

#8 RYMSKA (FR) is one of two runners conditioned by Chad Brown in this race. Another filly that is looking for her fourth consecutive victory, this gal has won a pair of Grade 3’s (the Sweet Chant Stakes and the Commonwealth Oaks) and most recently defeated eight other rivals in the Winter Memories Stakes at Aqueduct. However, she has finished behind her stablemate #9 NEW MONEY HONEY twice in the past, so she’ll need to find a way to beat that rival.

#9 NEW MONEY HONEY is the only Grade I winner in the field, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) as a two-year-old and the Belmont Oaks (G1) three starts ago. She’s been freshened up since her poor effort in the QE II Cup (G1), so don’t be surprised if she rebounds and runs a big one.

#10 COACHWHIP has run a trio of times in her career, with all three efforts coming up north at Golden Gate Fields. After breaking her maiden easily and defeating an older group of fillies and mares in an allowance race, this Calumet Farm homebred ran on strongly to finish second behind #2 KATHY’S SONG in the Miss America Stakes. Makes her first start for Richard Mandella.

SELECTIONS

1. #9 NEW MONEY HONEY – Class.
2. #4 DADDY’S LIL DARLING – Solid effort in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1).
3. #8 RYMSKA – Eastern invaders look tough.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 MADAME DANCELOT – Exotics candidate.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll use all four of my picks in a trifecta box, then box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top selection.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$1 Trifecta Box: #1 MADAME DANCELOT and #4 DADDY’S LIL DARLING and #8 RYMSKA and #9 NEW MONEY HONEY ($24).

$2 Exacta Box: #4 DADDY’S LIL DARLING and #8 RYMSKA and #9 NEW MONEY HONEY ($12).

$14 Win: #9 NEW MONEY HONEY

 

(Bankroll at +$43.20 after 2017 Week #22 Based on $50 Wagers; +$24.60 last newsletter).

 

 

 

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