Race 8 (Saturday, December 30, 2017: 3:50 p.m./ET; 12:50 p.m./PT)
One mile on the main track (New York bred two-year-olds)
Top trainers Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher each have two runners in this field of nine runners. Will the rich get richer or will one of the other conditioners take home the big money? Let’s try to answer that question:
#1 SEA FOAM has never finished worse than second in five lifetime starts. He comes into this race off of two straight wins, one against maiden special weight company and the other in the Notebook Stakes racing six furlongs. He has never been a mile before but his pedigree (by Medaglia D’Oro out of a Unbridled Song mare) suggests he will be okay with the added distance. Contender.
#2 SEVEN LILIES finished third, almost seven lengths behind #7 JAYE JAYE in an allowance race here at Aqueduct going this distance. He will need to make up several lengths on that rival while facing many other tough shooters. Looks overmatched.
#3 HONOR UP took five tries to break his maiden but was able to do so last time out, on December 9, when he went off at odds of 2/5 and smoked the competition to win by almost a dozen lengths. Previous to that, he had finished behind #8 AUDIBLE in two prior starts and faces other proven winners for the first time in this race.
#4 EVALUATOR won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes by a nose in October and has been given a two-month freshening for this. His running style often gives himself too much to do and note that when he won the Sleepy Hollow, there was a pace collapse, which set things up perfectly for this closer. Expect him to once again sit far off the pace and make one late run.
#5 ANALYZE THE ODDS has finished off the board in his last two starts, both against New York bred stakes company and both won by horses (#1 SEA FOAM and #4 EVALUATOR) entered in this spot. Even though he’s got one of the best trainers in the game in Todd Pletcher on his team, he’ll need to improve substantially.
#6 EMPIRE LINE has only one career start to his name, resulting in a ‘stalk and pounce’ victory going six-furlongs against New-York bred maiden special weight company. He earned an excellent Beyer Speed Figure (86) and looks to have plenty of talent. Interesting item.
#7 JAYE JAYE is undefeated with two wins from two starts. After he broke his maiden on the turf, he came back to beat New York-bred allowance company at this distance over this track. Legit contender for Hall-of-Famer Bill Mott.
#8 AUDIBLE is the second Todd Pletcher entrant in the race. Was purchased for $500,000 at the Fasig-Tipton two-year-olds in training sale in March and since then, has broken his maiden and won an allowance race against open company by almost ten lengths, over this track at this distance. Clearly has loads of ability.
#9 BATTLE STATION won the first two starts of his career but has since lost two straight races, including a 10-length defeat to #4 EVALUATOR two starts ago. His best makes him an exotics candidate but he will need to run the best race of his life to win.
SELECTIONS
- #8 AUDIBLE – High priced two-year-old Pletcher purchase is talented.
- #7 JAYE JAYE – First two career races were snappy.
- #1 SEA FOAM – Consistent colt merits respect.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 EMPIRE LINE – Career debut was a beauty.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top three selections in exactas.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$20 Win: #8 AUDIBLE
$5 Exacta Box: #1 SEA FOAM and #7 JAYE JAYE and #8 AUDIBLE ($30).
(Bankroll at +$43.20 after 2017 Week #22 Based on $50 Wagers; +$24.60 last newsletter).
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