$100,000 Midnight Lute (G3) – Santa Anita Park

Race 8 (Saturday, December 30, 2017: 7:00 p.m./ET; 4:00 p.m./PT)

Six and one half furlongs (three-year-olds and upward)

The Midnight Lute (G3) is named after a sensational colt that is regarded by some racing experts as one of the most talented sprinters in the twenty first century. He was trained by Bob Baffert, as is MASOCHISTIC, the talented Cal-bred sprinter, who makes his first start today for the white haired wonder. Let’s take a look at the field:

#1 SILENT BIRD returns off a four month break for trainer Mark Glatt, who is just 5- for-58 with runners making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. This son of SUMMER BIRD adds blinkers today and loves this track, having won four out of five over the Santa Anita dirt, thought most of those wins came against non-graded stakes company. He most recently ran third in the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar behind GIANT EXPECTATIONS, who just won the San Antonio (G2) last week and may be headed to the Pegasus World Cup (G1).

#2 OHIO (BRZ), a first time gelding, hasn’t been seen since an off the board finish against allowance company in March. Has never raced on dirt before and is better going a route of ground. Thinking he is entered just to get a race into him off the vacation.

#3 IKE WALKER cuts back from a route to a sprint after a one length victory against second level allowance company. The last time he raced around one turn, he finished third behind ST. JOE BAY and MOE CANDY in the Palos Verdes (G2). Irad Ortiz Jr. is in Southern California for the afternoon and has the engagement for Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

#4 MASOCHISTIC hasn’t been seen in seven-and-a-half months and makes his first start for trainer Bob Baffert, who hits at a 27% strike rate with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. Son of SOUGHT AFTER is a Grade I winner that also finished second in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). His best makes him the one to beat.

#5 AMERICANIZE cuts back in distance after a fourth place finish behind SHARP AZTECA, MIND YOUR BISCUITS and PRACTICAL JOKE in the Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct. Before that, he won the Damascus Stakes on Breeders’ Cup Friday and also was victorious in an allowance race at Santa Anita in October. The second place finisher in that race, CITY OF LIGHT, just won the Malibu (G1) on Tuesday. He’s never been in better form and should be super fit with the cutback in distance.

#6 SOLID WAGER made up a ton of ground in the Cary Grant Stakes, a restricted Cal-bred stakes event at Del Mar last month, to finish second. The winner, EDWARDS GOING LEFT, put up a good showing when finishing second against open company in the Malibu Stakes (G1). He’s a deep closer and often gives himself too much ground to make up.

#7 TOUGH SUNDAY made his 2017 (and turf) debut last time out when sprinting five furlongs at Del Mar and wired the field at odds of 6/1. Finished third in this race last year, behind #6 SOLID WAGER, over a sloppy track.

#8 CALCULATOR was a non-factor in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last time out, but his effort two races back was solid, when he finished second behind GIANT EXPECTATIONS in the Pat O’Brien (G2). Javier Castellano, who is riding at Santa Anita for the afternoon, hops aboard for trainer Peter Miller.

#9 SMOKEY IMAGE has failed to win since 2016, when he defeated Cal-breds in the California Derby. His most recent afternoon appearance resulted in a third place finish behind EDWARDS GOING LEFT and #6 SOLID WAGER. Looks to be in too tough this time.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 AMERICANIZE – Has never been in better form.
2. #7 MASOCHISTIC – First start for Baffert barn.
3. #8 CALCULATOR – Pat O’Brien (G2) effort makes him a player.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 SILENT BIRD – Horse for course.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top two picks in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #5 AMERICANIZE

$15 Exacta Box: #5 AMERICANIZE and #7 MASOCHISTIC ($30).

 

(Bankroll at +$43.20 after 2017 Week #22 Based on $50 Wagers; +$24.60 last newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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