By Emily Shields
After three straight impressive victories, including the grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable looked like a very live shot for trainer Bob Baffert on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail. Since then, however, he has lost his only prep race, will have a rider change from Drayden Van Dyke to Jose Ortiz, and will put blinkers on. Could Saturday’s $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park be a perfect storm for the son of City Zip? He will face tough competition including Long Range Toddy, Omaha Beach, and Galilean.
#1 Improbable (8-5) is a Baffert trainee has had two bullet workouts since suffering first career defeat. A stakes winner at Churchill Downs and grade 1 winner at two, he is a formidable foe. Blinkers go on today after working in them.
#2 Six Shooter (30-1) had been third or fourth in three starts here since winning the Big Drama at Delta Downs in January. This will be his 11thlifetime start, but he has been top three in seven of ten so far.
#3 Omaha Beach (2-1) could have been one of those summer turf types after three straight grass races, but finally raced going a mile on the dirt and just missed to highly touted Nolo Contesto. Broke his maiden at Santa Anita over seven furlongs with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, then jumped up to win the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out over divisional champion Game Winner, by a nose. Has had two bullet works since for trainer Richard Mandella.
#4 Tikhvin Flew (30-1) is a stakes placed winner for Steve Asmussen. Tyler Baze will ride the son of Street Sense.
#5 Laughing Fox (20-1) won two in a row earlier this year over this track, then was seventh in the Rebel. He worked a sharp four furlongs on April 7 in 48.20. Could a bad break have affected his Rebel performance?
#6 Gray Attempt (8-1), by Graydar, is a three-time stakes winner, including twice over this track. He won the Gazebo last out over six furlongs after a poor showing in the Southwest Stakes (G3), where he was a top choice following a win in the Smarty Jones over a mile. Stewart Elliott rides.
#7 Galilean (10-1) was a stunner in California earlier, winning the King Glorious by nine and the California Cup Derby by 4 ½. He was third in the Rebel in his first try outside California-bred company, beaten only 2 ½ lengths for the win. Blinkers come off talented colt today.
#8 Country House (12-1) broke his maiden in fine fashion January 17 going a mile, then was well regarded in both the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2), where he was second and fourth, respectively. He could definitely step up here today and has Derby designs for trainer Bill Mott.
#9 One Flew South (50-1) ships in for trainer Doug O’Neill. He was fifth in the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland and before that broke his maiden at Turfway Park for trainer Wesley Ward before changing barns. Blinkers on today.
#10 Jersey Agenda (30-1) was off the board in two graded stakes tries after winning two in a row, including going a mile here in January.
#11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) is still considered a bit of an outsider here after winning a division of the Rebel at 8-1. He has never been worse than third here and won the Springboard Mile in December. Jon Court stays aboard for Asmussen.
The post Improbable Seeks Amends at Oaklawn appeared first on Horse Racing News, Betting Previews & Picks by TVG Blog®.
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