$1 Million Wood Memorial

$1,000,000 Wood Memorial (G2)
Aqueduct

Race 10 (Saturday, April 6, 2019: 6:00 p.m/ET; 3:00 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

The biggest card of the year at Aqueduct is this Saturday, with an 11-race program featuring a quintet of stakes races. The headliner is one of the most prestigious three-year-old races in the country, the Wood Memorial (G2), that features a duo of Todd Pletcher and Jason Servis runners. Will Pletcher and Servis come out on top, or will another trainer play spoiler in this year’s edition? Let’s try to answer that question:

#1 TAX beat #7 NOT THAT BRADY in the Withers (G3) over this track and gets a rematch with him while facing some sharp new shooters in this spot. The Withers (G3) is run at this mile and an eighth distance, so we know he likes the nine-panels, and he is conditioned by a trainer who is off to a red-hot start this year, winning at a 25% clip. Local horse is a legit contender.

#2 TACITUS is a royally bred Bill Mott trained colt, by TAPIT out of Grade I winning mare CLOSE HATCHES. His first start off a four-month break resulted in an 8/1 upset in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), defeating #10 OUTSHINE in the process. Top U.S. rider Jose Ortiz returns to rides and I wouldn’t be surprised if he came right back to win.

#3 HOFFA’S UNION dueled on the lead in his career debut, a maiden special weight at Laurel Park, and won the race by an eye-popping fifteen-length margin and was privately purchased out of that race by trainer Mark Casse. If he wins this off of just one career race, he might be the real deal.

#4 HAIKAL makes his first career start going two turns. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee beat #11 JOEVIA in a minor stake going one-turn two starts ago before returning to beat MIND CONTROL and INSTAGRAND in the Gotham (G3). This guy comes off the pace and rallies like a horse that will enjoy going another furlong. On top of that, his breeding suggests he will be okay with added distance. That said, it’s worth noting he got a perfect set up in the Gotham (G3), sitting off a fast pace, and ran by tired horses. Mixed feelings.

#5 FINAL JEOPARDY was a dominant allowance winner at Gulfstream Park last time out, and won like a horse that is begging for tougher company. Although he has never raced two turns before, his breeding suggests he’ll enjoy it, by STREET SENSE out of an UNBRIDLED’S SONG mare. Manny Franco rides for trainer Jason Servis and they team up to win at a 29% clip together.

#6 OVERDELIVER broke his maiden at first asking in a six furlong sprint at Gulfstream and came back to run second behind WIN WIN WIN, who is a major player in the Toyota Bluegrass (G1) at Keeneland. This Todd Pletcher trainee makes her first career start routing while also competing in a graded stakes race for the first time. A lot to ask of this guy.

#7 NOT THAT BRADY lost by a head to #1 TAX in the Withers (G3) and was eased in his most recent start, the Gotham (G3). His last start was concerning and is too poor to ignore.

#8 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is the second horse in the field conditioned by trainer Jason Servis. Son of SKY MESA comes off a six length maiden romp going the one-turn mile over this dirt track and will travel two turns for the first time. Other Servis stablemate (#5, FINAL JEOPARDY) looks a bit more appealing.

#9 MATH WIZARD won a $25K claimer by 16 lengths two starts ago and came back to win a starter allowance, optional claimer at Gulfstream going a one-turn mile. This is an awfully ambitious spot for a horse that doesn’t have the (apparent) class that most of these others do. Passing.

#10 OUTSHINE is the second Todd Pletcher entrant in the race. He ran a strong second to #2 TACITUS in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). This is his third start off a layoff and second try going two turns. Top jockey/trainer combo of John Velazquez/Pletcher are in play here, too. Contender.

#11 JOEVIA was well beaten in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park last time out and faces tougher in this spot. Will need to run faster to be competitive for an in the money placing.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 FINAL JEOPARDY – Improving colt for high percentage trainer.

2. #2 TACITUS – Royally bred colt looks good on paper. 3.

#10 OUTSHINE – Training well since a solid effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 HOFFA’S UNION – Maiden win was scary good.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a win bet on my top pick and an exacta box using my top three selections.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #5 FINAL JEOPARDY $5 Exacta Box: #2 TACITUS and #5 FINAL JEOPARDY and #10 OUTSHINE ($30).