$1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Santa Anita Park
Race 8 (Saturday, April 6, 2019: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-years-old)
Seven stakes races are spread out over Santa Anita’s fantastic 11-race program, and the headliner on the card is the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), featuring the Bob Baffert powerhouse duo of GAME WINNER and ROADSTER.
#1 ROADSTER was very highly regarded heading into his career debut, a race in which he ran off the screen. He came back as the heavy favorite in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and had to settle for third. One can be forgiving of that effort considering he was put to the sidelines with a setback. He made his return to the races on March 1, his most recent afternoon appearance, and handily defeated #3 NOLO CONTESTO over this track in an allowance race. Second start off the layoff for Bob Baffert, he could take a step forward, and he must do so in order to defeat stablemate and champion two-year-old of 2018, #6 GAME WINNER.
#2 MORE ICE, one of two Jerry Hollendorfer entrants, comes off a third place finish in the El Camino Real Derby behind Sunland Derby (G3) runner up ANOTHERTWISTAFATE. His best races have come on turf and synthetics and he doesn’t appear to have the speed or class to compete with the best signed on here. For those reasons, he will go off at a big price.
#3 NOLO CONTESTO broke his maiden two starts ago, beating next out Rebel (G2) winner OMAHA BEACH. The John Sadler trainee then came back in an allowance race, facing winners for the first time, and went off at 3/5 in a field of five. After a slow start, he recovered and put himself in a good position before finishing a clear second to the Baffert trained #1 ROADSTER. Unless he runs faster this time, this colts upside is as an exotics contender.
#4 SYNTHESIS makes his first start for trainer George Papaprodromou. Previously in the barn of Keith Desormeuax, this son of FIRST SAMURAI most recently ran fourth in the one-turn San Vicente (G2) over this track. His only career win came going two turns, so we know he likes routing, but he is up against it from a class perspective. Passing.
#5 INSTAGRAND is the second Jerry Hollendorfer entrant. This colt was purchased for $1.2 million as a two-year-old and didn’t disappoint in his first two career races, winning both events by a combined 20 lengths. He was given time off and came back last month to run third as the favorite in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. Second start off the layoff, he might be able to improve, but one has to question whether he is best going two turns considering he is a very speedy colt. Needs to run a really big race to have a shot at the top prize.
#6 GAME WINNER makes his second start off a four-and-a-half month layoff after a nose defeat in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn three weeks ago. Before the layoff, this son of CANDY RIDE won the Del Mar Futurity (G1), Front Runner (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a two-year-old and eventually earned the Eclipse Award for champion 2-year-old of 2018. The one to fear most.
SELECTIONS
1. #6 GAME WINNER – Have to beat the Champ to be the Champ.
2. #1 ROADSTER – Flashy comeback victory last month.
3. #5 INSTAGRAND – We’ll find out a lot about him in this race.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 NOLO CONTESTO – Has always been well regarded.
WAGERING STRATEGY
Let’s try to squeeze some value out of what appears to be a relatively chalky race by playing a straight trifecta, keying my top pick over my second selection and longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget) $25 Trifecta: #6 GAME WINNER over #1 ROADSTER and #3 NOLO CONTESTO
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