$1,000,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G2)
Keeneland
Race 10 (Saturday, April 6, 2019: 6:23 p.m./ET; 3:23 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)
You won’t find many tracks in the world like Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky, and on Saturday, they host an 11-race program, with five graded stakes events highlighted by the $1,000,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G2). A full field of 14 is signed on to run, so let’s analyze their premier Spring race of the meet:
#1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN makes his first start over a dirt track. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner BIG BROWN most recently defeated #13 MOONSTER in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway on March 9. Speed figures indicate he will need to run faster than he has been to be competitive with the best entered.
#2 VEKOMA is bred to be a good one, being by CANDY RIDE out of Grade I winning mare MONA DE MOMMA. This colt comes off a third place finish behind CODE OF HONOR in the Fountain of Youth (G2), who came back to run third in the Florida Derby (G1). Before the Fountain of Youth (G2), VEKOMA won the Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct and defeated CALL PAUL, who rebounded to win the Swale (G2) in his next start. The morning line favorite.
#3 SIGNALMAN makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Ken McPeek, who wins at 14% with his trainees making their second start off a break between 45-180 days. This son of GENERAL QUARTERS finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and most recently finished midfield in the Fountain of Youth (G2). If you believe this guy may have needed his last race, he should be marked as a contender.
#4 MARKET KING was well beaten in the Rebel (G2), finishing third beaten nine lengths by OMAHA BEACH and GAME WINNER. His only career win came against maiden special weight company three starts back at Oaklawn. Legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas trains, who has won this race twice before.
#5 CHESS CHIEF broke his maiden in lifetime start number five on March 2, defeating a group of five other maiden special weight rivals at the Fair Grounds. That was his first try going a route of ground, but this is also his first start against proven winners and the bump up in class is significant.
#6 DREAM MAKER dominated a group of allowance runners at the Fair Grounds in his 2019 debut, then came back to finish at the back of the field in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) last time out. His three career graded stakes runs have all resulted in off the board finishes, so it’s a big question mark if he can perform at this level.
#7 ADMIRE broke his maiden three starts back over a sloppy track at Churchill and has come back to run off-the-board in two graded stakes routes since: the Withers (G3) and the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). All signs indicate he’ll need to improve. #8 WIN WIN WIN routed for the first time in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and ran a respectable third behind TACITUS, who is the likely favorite for the Wood Memorial (G2). He might be able to run even better in his second lifetime route try and has speed figures that indicate he is fast enough to be competitive in this race. Gulfstream Park’s leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. rides.
#9 SIR WINSTON was fifth at 46/1 in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) last time out. He was well behind fast fractions early and made a strong late rally in the final sixteenth before galloping out well. He now gets a sixteenth of a mile longer to race and will most likely get another decent pace to chase. Longshot possibility.
#10 LUCKY LEE won two races in impressive fashion at Parx before finishing 12 lengths behind TAX in the Withers (G3), his most recent afternoon appearance. He showed speed in his two best races, so expect him to be close to the lead, if not on it.
#11 SO ALIVE freshens up after an 11-length loss to WELL DEFINED in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Before that effort, he won an allowance race at Tampa. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race three times.
#12 PARSIMONY is a maiden that was well beaten at 78/1 in the Rebel (G2) three weeks ago. Would be a massive upset if he were to hit the wire first.
#13 MOONSTER was well beaten by #1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN in the Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) at 58/1. Before that effort, this colt was beaten by double-digit lengths in six straight races. Another one that needs complete form reversal to be competitive.
#14 AQUADINI broke his maiden like a good thing at the Fair Grounds and came back to run second as the favorite in an allowance race. He bumps up in class to this stakes group and will need to work out a good trip from the far outside post. Lots of obstacles to hurdle.
SELECTIONS
1. #2 VEKOMA – Well bred colt is good enough to beat this group.
2. #3 SIGNALMAN – Could take a big leap forward second start off the break.
3. #8 WIN WIN WIN – Attracts top rider Ortiz Jr.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY: #9 SIR WINSTON – Will like added distance.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll play an exacta box with all four of my selections and make a straight win bet on my longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$2 Exacta Box: #2 VEKOMA and #3 SIGNALMAN and #8 WIN WIN WIN and #9 SIR WINSTON ($24).
$26 Win: #9 SIR WINSTON
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