Three-Year-Old Derby Preps

By Dean Arnold

Distinguish legitimate stakes animals from ambitious pretenders, then take the opportunity to bet the stakes horse in the stakes races, and tab the pretenders for a major wager when they drop back to allowance fields.  

From January through April, the three-year-olds progress through a series of high-priced allowance and restricted stakes. The most talented of each crop are pointed towards the Kentucky Derby (G1) or Kentucky Oaks (G1). But as horses progress along the Triple Crown trail, they must be considered at each stop both on their prospects in the given race, and the fact that in some ways, the horses are prepping for bigger performances ahead. 

Three-years-olds of high quality present a real challenge for players. Well bred, impressive maiden and allowance winners may continue to rapidly develop and improve, making them legitimate stakes contenders. On the other hand, they may also be merely quality allowance runners and not destined for stakes glory. The ‘x factor’ of how much a three-year-old will continue to develop and grow is very hard to estimate. 

Oftentimes, future stakes stars will win their maiden races and allowance races impressively, yet get beat in their initial stakes foray. Impressive beginners often look fabulous beating non-winners, but face a much sterner challenge against fellow quality stakes animals, and they rarely step right up and win in their first try. Nevertheless, if they are still fundamentally sound, and moving forward in their development, their second and third stakes tries are often much improved, and at a price.   

Gulfstream Park continues its three-year-old series this Saturday with the Florida Derby (G1). On the other side of the world, the $2 million UAE Derby (G1) will be held on the Dubai World Cup undercard. And over the next few weekends, the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the Wood Memorial (G1), the Arkansas Derby (G1) and the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) will determine most of the starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1).

As you watch and wager on these marquee three-year-old Derby preps, take note that all these horses will progress in one of the following ways: 

– Towards a long-term goal of winning the classic Grade I’s down the road, gaining stamina and experience without peaking in lesser events.

– Striking while the iron is hot, trying to win the added money these stakes offer while the divisional leaders may not be cranked up 100%.

– Testing the stakes waters, but then dropping back to destroy allowance fields, often after getting beaten badly in stakes. The difference between stakes runners and the maiden winners that fill the allowance non winners of one fields is underestimated every time — Attack it!

– Testing the stakes waters, running a clunker, then adding Lasix and/or new equipment and rebounding. The retry in a stakes race after a beating is a good sign when the trainer is reputable, and when the horse wasn’t a hopeless longshot in the first stakes attempt. 

Requirements to play three-year-old Derby preps:

– Take advantage of this key time of year in the three-year-old season by following the Triple Crown trail of preps with an eye for which horses belong.

– When horses try stakes and get beat, bet the return when it’s an allowance, especially against a field of maiden winners.

– Watch for horses that are either quick, precocious, or both, that romp in these early added money events, waiting for them to become over-bet favorites down the road.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.