Paddock Picks: How to Make Them

You’ve done your handicapping on paper and have a clear image of how a race should play out. Whether there is too much speed, not enough pace, where horses have drawn in the gate, and overall class and form all play a part in your selection making. But what about how the horse looks physically?

Jokes about picking by color aside, the paddock is where racegoers can observe how fit and healthy the horse is, which at times can throw all other handicapping out the window.

General Health and Fitness: When the horses are in the paddock, pay attention to their weight in regard to their size. Does the horse seem “light” or “heavy” compared to their frame? The former could mean the horse wouldn’t mind putting on a few pounds, whereas the latter might indicate they lack fitness. Silver Charm, a multiple grade 1-winning classic champion, notoriously “got heavy” towards the end of his career, where trainer Bob Baffert couldn’t keep him light enough and the horse started losing races.

Coat Tone: The great mare Zenyatta always came over to race covered in dapples, which looked like dark rings or spots just underneath her coat. Although Zenyatta spent her entire career this way, if a horse presents with dapples in the paddock it can be an inidication that they are feeling the best they ever have. Dapples are considered the ultimate in good health, but in general a shining, vibrant coat that has no indication of dullness means the horse is doing well. A bright coat over hard muscles is a fantastic sign.

Behavior: Is the horse skittish? Sweating? Rolling its eyes? Jumping around and in general tough to handle? These are all negative signs, although some sweat between the back legs is normal and not a terrible indicator. Neck and flank sweat is something to observe, with leeway on warm days when many of the horses appear this way. Is the horse calm, professional looking, perhaps on the muscle with an arched neck and some controlled, in-place prancing? These are excellent indicators that the horse is ready to fire.

Some very young horses just starting their careers will neigh for their stablemates when brought to the paddock. This is just a sign that they feel “lost” and not an indicator of readiness.

Keeping Tabs:It helps to go to the races often and learn how each horse looks before a race, then write it down for future use. Has the horse lost weight or muscle definition? Are they dull today where they were prancing last week? Are they acting up or upset where they were calm before? The reverse is also true: maybe a youngster is settling down after being anxious in previous starts.

It’s important to remember that there are no hard and fast rules, as each horse is an individual, but these tips can help you know what to look for in the paddock. Observing horses in the paddock on a regular basis can help a handicapper become a solid judge of horseflesh and in turn improve their handicapping skills.