Past Kentucky Derby Winners: How Many Pre-Derby Starts?

Handicappers are always looking for angles when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Aside from post position, pace scenario, and track condition, there are other factors that can help predict success. Some examine birth dates of the runners (an earlier birthday meaning a more mature horse), while many novice bettors at the track may simply wager on coat color.

The number of starts a horse has had in its career leading up to the Derby is another factor. Last year, Justify had only three lifetime starts, matching that of Big Brown in 2008. The difference is that Justify never ran as a juvenile, while Big Brown broke his maiden in September of his two-year-old season. Just a year before him, Curlin attempted to win the Derby off only three lifetime starts, finished third in the Run for the Roses, and went on to have one of the best careers of the modern age.

Below are the number of starts that the last 20 winners had going intothe Kentucky Derby:

• Justify – 3
• Always Dreaming – 5
• Nyquist – 7
• American Pharoah – 5
• California Chrome – 10
• Orb – 7
• I’ll Have Another – 5
• Animal Kingdom – 4
• Super Saver – 6
• Mine That Bird – 8
• Big Brown – 3
• Street Sense – 7
• Barbaro – 5
• Giacomo – 7
• Smarty Jones – 6
• Funny Cide – 6
• War Emblem – 7
• Monarchos – 6
• Fusaichi Pegasus – 5
• Charistmatic – 14

Freakish talent like Justify and Big Brown aside, Derby winners typically have more of a foundation. Even with their information added, the average number of starts per Derby winner for the last 20 years is 6.3. Remove them from the equation, and that number becomes 6.6.

War of Will has already had seven career starts, and figures to make that eight before the Derby. Game Winner is likely to have six, while Instagrand could only have four. Galilean would have five or six, Improbable will have four or five.

Another interesting angle is the emphasis on two-year-old form versus bursting onto the scene at three. Nyquist made five starts at two, and American Pharoah was a dual grade 1 winner before going to the sidelines from late October until March. Animal Kingdom raced twice at two (September and October) then twice at three (both in March) before surprising in the Derby. California Chrome, I’ll Have Another, and Mine That Bird had solid juvenile foundations, while Always Dreaming did not break his maiden until January 25 of his Derby year.

For now, having a solid foundation tends to beat flashy newcomers, but that trend could change in the coming years.