$200k Buena Vista

$200,000 Buena Vista (G2)
Santa Anita

Race 8 (Saturday, February 23, 2019: 7:00 p.m./ET; 4:00 p.m./PT)

Mile on the turf (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

VASILIKA and Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) competitor FAHAN MURA, both of whom are a combined 14-for-16 on the Santa Anita turf course, headline the 2018 Buena Vista (G2). Also entered is multiple graded stakes winner ELYSEA’S WORLD, making her first start for trainer Richard Baltas, the Brad Cox trained shipper TAKE THESE CHAINS and classy Grade I placed filly AMANDINE. Let’s get to the analysis:

#1 TAKE THESE CHAINS (IRE) freshens up and ships West for top East Coast based trainer Brad Cox. The Irish-bred daughter of FASTNET ROCK finished off the board as the favorite in a minor stakes race at the Fair Grounds in December, but has won three allowance races throughout her career. Attempting to win her first graded stakes here.

#2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR has been the runner up behind #9 VASILIKA and #6 AMANDINE in her last two starts. Richard Baltas trainee is very consistent and shows up pretty much every race, but we’ll use her underneath in exotics and try to beat her on the win end.

#3 ZAFFINAH (IRE) ran a terrific race when finishing third behind #9 VASILIKA and #2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR in the Megahertz (G3) last time out at 36/1. Exotics placing may be her ceiling unless she runs faster.

#4 FAHAN MURA was a no-show in her most recent start, the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) against males. She finished behind #9 VASILIKA in two attempts last year but has done a lot of good work in Southern California, including two starts back when scoring her first graded stakes win in the Robert Frankel (G3). She is definitely a ‘horse for course’ with six wins and one second from seven starts over the Santa Anita turf course.

#5 COMPELLED finished three lengths behind #4 FAHAN MURA the last time she routed. Her two most recent runs were runner up finishes behind next out winners FIRE KEY and BELVOIR BAY in sprint races. Now she has to prove she can beat legit graded stakes routers while taking a bump up in class. Won’t be easy. #6 AMANDINE (GB) was purchased out of Europe last fall and has run four times in the United States. Her first two races were outstanding efforts, beating older in an allowance race at Del Mar, then winning a minor stakes race on Opening Day at Santa Anita. She wheeled back in just three days and ran third in the American Oaks (G1) and then took a month off and regressed in her most recent start, finishing behind ##9 VASILIKA, #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR and #3 ZAFFINAH in the Megahertz (G3). Needs to run her very best to have a shot at winning.

#7 ENGLISH DANCER won a second level allowance in December and freshens up for this try against graded stakes company. Solid conditioner Richard Baltas and Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeuax team up.

#8 ELYSEA’S WORLD (IRE) makes her first start for the Baltas barn after being purchased at Keeneland in November as a racing/broodmare prospect. Previously trained by Chad Brown, this daughter of CHAMPS ELYSEES won three Grade 3 races back East last year and has earned over $566K in her career. Respect.

#9 VASILIKA was the claim of the year in 2018 as she was purchased by her current owners and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer right before winning a $40K claimer, and, since then, has won nine races, including one Grade 3, two Grade 2’s and the Rodeo Drive (G1). The one to fear.

#10 STREAK OF LUCK comes off an allowance win over this turf course, a run that hopefully built her confidence leading up to this graded stakes event. Her most recent start against stakes competition resulted in a midfield finish behind #6 AMANDINE and #2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR two starts ago. She may be a notch or two below the best signed on.

SELECTIONS

1. #9 VASILIKA – Has won more than 50% of her career starts.

2. #4 FAHAN MUHRA – Speed of the speed loves Santa Anita turf.

3. #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD – Plenty of class.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR – Big money rider.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other two selections in an exacta, then reverse it for a smaller amount.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Exacta: #9 VASILIKA over #4 FAHAN MUHRA and #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD ($40). $5 Exacta: #4 FAHAN MUHRA and #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD over #9 VASILIKA ($10).