$100k Hal’s Hope

$100,000 Hal’s Hope (G3)
Gulfstream Park

Race 11 (Saturday, February 23, 2019: 4:58 p.m./ET; 1:58 p.m./PT)

One mile on the main track (four-year-olds and upward)

The feature race on the 13-race Saturday card does not disappoint as it features some of the fastest one-turn milers on the East Coast, including the Todd Pletcher trained pair of COPPER TOWN and PRINCE LUCKY, talented miler BREAKING LUCKY and the return of 2018 Preakness (G1) participant QUIP. Let’s get down to business:

#1 TALE OF SILENCE was last seen winning the Westchester (G3) at Belmont last May for trainer Barclay Tagg. Two of his three lifetime wins have come going this one-mile distance, but he is zero-for-four over the Gulfstream main track.

#2 FELLOWSHIP ran a huge race when rounding out the trifecta at 70/1 in the Fred Hooper (G3) last month. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for the first time, which is a major positive, but he will need to prove that his most recent run was no fluke, as the majority of his races in 2018 resulted in poor efforts. #3 BREAKING LUCKY finished ahead of #2 FELLOWSHIP in the Fred Hooper (G3), finishing second, a length-and-three-quarters behind win machine AZTEC SENSE. Two starts back, this colt won an allowance race by almost eight lengths. Good recent form over this track for a solid trainer in George Weaver means this guy is one you must take a second look at.

#3 BREAKING LUCKY finished ahead of #2 FELLOWSHIP in the Fred Hooper (G3), finishing second, a length-and-three-quarters behind win machine AZTEC SENSE. Two starts back, this colt won an allowance race by almost eight lengths. Good recent form over this track for a solid trainer in George Weaver means this guy is one you must take a second look at.

#4 WILD SHOT has run twice since taking a long vacation from August 2017 to November of 2018. In his first start, he finished second behind next out Grade 2 placed runner COPPER BULLET in an allowance race. In his second start off the break, ‘SHOT regressed significantly and was a nonfactor in the Mr. Prospector (G3). His only victory against proven winners came in the Pat Day Mile (G3) going a one-turn mile, so we know he likes this distance. Also, note the Mr. Prospector (G3) was a key race as the winner COAL FRONT came back to win the Grade 2 Razaborack and third place finisher HERTWOOD won the King Cotton Stakes.

#5 QUIP makes his four-year-old debut and first start in nine months for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, who wins at a 17% clip with his trainees racing for the first time over 180 days. After a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and a runner up finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1), this colt lost by 45 lengths in the Preakness (G1) over a sloppy track. Obviously something went amiss in the Preakness and this colt has talent, but this is a good group of older horses. Taking a wait and see approach.

#6 MR. JORDAN cuts back from a two-turn route to an elongated sprint after a double-digit length loss in the Sunshine Millions Classic. The last time he ran this one-turn mile distance, he finished third in a restricted Florida-bred stake.

#7 COPPER TOWN has disappointed in his two most recent two races and looks to make amends in this graded stakes event. After a dominating win in an allowance race (while earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure) this fall, the Todd Pletcher trainee finished off the board, double-digit lengths behind the winners, in the Cigar Mile (G1) and Fred Hooper (G3). He has always been well-regarded and shown flashes of brilliance in his best races. Raw talent is evident, but he needs to put it all together.

#8 SIR ANTHONY looks for his fifth win in a row after a 25/1 upset victory against AUDIBLE in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) over a sloppy track in December. He is three-for-four over a wet surface and runs his best when competing over an off-track, but the weather forecast for Saturday calls for sun. 

#9 PRINCE LUCKY is the second Todd Pletcher entrant signed up. Son of CORINTHEAN makes his first start off an eight-month break. There are signs that he could run a big race as he sports a number of bullet workouts leading up to this and Pletcher wins at a high 32% with runners first off a layoff longer than 180 days. He’ll need to prove he has the class to beat these solid, older horses though.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 BREAKING LUCKY – Millionaire merits respect.

2. #7 COPPER TOWN – Talent is there, but consistency is not.

3. #9 PRINCE LUCKY – The ‘other’ Pletcher.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 TALE OF SILENCE – G3 winner.

WAGEING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #3 BREAKING LUCKY