Pegasus World Cup

By Dean Arnold

This is the third year of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Last year, this was a single $16 million race for the race formerly known as the Donn Handicap. This year, the giant purse money has been split into a $7 million turf race at 1 3/16th miles and a $9 million race run at 1 1/8th miles on the main track at Gulfstream Park.  

The $7 million turf race drew a field of 10:
1 Magic Wand (IRE) 9/2
2 Yoshida (JPN) 5/2
3 Channel Maker 12/1
4 Aerolithe (JPN) 8/1
5 Next Shares 15/1
6 Fahan Mura 30/1
7 Bricks and Mortar 5/1
8 Delta Prince 15/1
9 Catapult 7/2
10 Dubby Dubbie 30/1

One of the challenges with shipping to Gulfstream Park in the winter is that it is a warm tropical climate. Magic Wand from Europe and Aerolithe from Japan are both shipping in from much colder climates. Between having their winter coats and not being used to 70-degree air, it is going to be a tough adjustment for both horses physically, even though they appear to be legitimate contenders bases on their past performances. 

Catapult shipping in from Southern California should have a much easier adjustment. The John Sadler trainee is coming in to this race well-rested off a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile (G1). His rider Joel Rosario has had plenty of success at Gulfstream and despite the outside post, appears to have a good chance to defeat likely favorite Yoshida.

Yoshida has shown he’s a legitimate Grade One runner on both turf and dirt. His trainer Bill Mott has a well-established reputation for getting horses to run big off layoffs. The only knock against him will be his price. He’s sure to be bet below his 5/2 morning line odds in a race that appears somewhat evenly matched. Given that this is a new race with no history to go on, it makes sense to go with a solid contender like Catapult if he’s 3/1 or more at post time, rather than a contender like Yoshida that could be bet down to 7/5.

The $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational drew a field of 12:

1 Bravazo 12/1
2 Something Awesome 20/1
3 City of Light 5/2
4 Seeking the Soul 12/1
5 Accelerate 9/5
6 Tom’s d’Etat 20/1
7 True Timber 30/1
8 Gunnevera 8/1
9 Kukulkan (MEX) 30/1
10 Audible 10/1
11 Imperative 30/1
12 Patternrecognition 10/1

Gulfstream’s Park main track is a 1 1/8 mile course with the start/finish line very close to the clubhouse turn. Races run at this distance have had very few winners outside of post eight, and breaking from the far outside in a large field makes it nearly impossible to win. The bias is so severe that there has been talk in years past of backing up the starting gate 40 yards behind the line to give the horses extra room to get position before entering the first turn. That’s not going to happen for this race, but speaks to the severity of the bias. Fortunately, top choices Accelerate and City of Light are both drawn towards the inside.

This year’s race really comes down to a question of pace. Contenders City of Light and Patternrecognition are both extremely talented front runners that need the lead to run their best race. Likely second choice City of Light needs to break cleanly and try to secure the lead on the rail entering the clubhouse turn. From his far outside post, Patternrecognition has a much tougher challenge. Trying to gun to the lead and get over to the rail in the opening 100 yards is a difficult proposition. But if he doesn’t clear the field, he’s either going to be hung wide around the clubhouse turn, or be trying to win from off the pace for the first time in his career, which I believe is too much to overcome against this field.

Often in a race where the top prospects all have the same front running style, there is a good chance of a pace meltdown. That being said, Gulfstream Park is a track that rarely yields closers winning from far back. Any thoughts of a stretch runner like Audible, Gunnevera or Seeking the Soul closing from 20-30 lengths back to win would simply be bucking a lot of racing history at Gulfstream Park. Additionally, the chances of a sub :46 second opening half-mile leading to City of Light and Patternrecognition completely cooking each other are also fairly remote. A more likely scenario is City of Light securing the lead and the rail, then easing back on the throttle and controlling a sensible pace while the rest of the field bunches up behind him.

It’s no fun to pick a solid favorite to win this race for the third year in a row (Arrogate in 2017 and Gun Runner in 2018), so while City of Light is a legitimate threat to take this group gate to wire in a mild upset, the pace may set up very well for a stalker like Accelerate. He has the tactical speed to stay close early and the acceleration (no pun intended) to take command entering the stretch. 

Deep stretch closers are unlikely win candidates. A lot of players will count on Accelerate vanquishing the top contenders on the front end, and holding on to win while longshot closers suck-up for second and third. But even if closers at huge odds finish behind Accelerate, the exotics will be over-bet and pay off at underwhelming prices. Exotics will only pay well if Accelerate is defeated. 

If you believe Accelerate can be beaten by your choice of upsetter, make sure you make a profit on your win bet regardless of the exotics. If you are going to take the stand against a fit and ready horse of the year contender, you’d better make sure you make money if you are right. I would rather make a win bet on City of Light to wire the field at odds of 5/2 or higher than try to turn an even money Accelerate into an exotics play using late rallying also-rans. Those using the same logic and taking horses like Audible or Gunnevera at 10/1 or higher are fighting a bias against closers to be sure, but at a minimum, you should demand a square price in the win pool for trying to beat a solid favorite.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through amazon.com