$300k La Brea

$300,000 La Brea (G1)

Santa Anita Park

Race 6 (Wednesday, December 26, 2018: 5:15 p.m./ET: 2:15 p.m./PT)

7 furlongs on the main track (three-year-old fillies)

The first of four consecutive graded stakes races on the exciting opening day Santa Anita card starts with the La Brea (G1) for three-year-old fillies. Let’s get to it:

#1 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL is zero-for-two at this seven furlong distance and has to deal with an undesirable post position. Playing against.

#2 MO SEE CAL looks for her fourth consecutive win while facing open stakes company for the first time. Her most recent victory came last month in a first level allowance race going one mile. Whether she has the class to beat the best in here remains to be seen.

#3 KELLY’S HUMOR adds blinkers while making her second start for the Peter Miller barn. Her last afternoon appearance resulted in an off the board finish against older allowance company, in which she sat far off the pace and never fired. Will need to pick up the pace to be competitive.

#4 EMBOLDENED hasn’t been seen since a sharp win in the Angel Flight Stakes over this track at this distance on May 12. This gal sports some fast morning works and trainer Bob Baffert hits at 24% with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. The ‘other’ Baffert entrant merits respect.

#5 DREAM TREE is the second Baffert trainee in the race and is strictly the one to beat. This speedy daughter of UNCLE MO is undefeated, with five wins in five career races. In her most recent start, she earned a career high 100 Beyer Speed Figure while smoking the competition in the Prioress (G2) at Saratoga. Similar to her stablemate, she posts some sharp drills leading up to this race. What’s not to like?

#6 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI freshens up after a five-length romp at low odds in the First Lady Stakes at Mahoning Valley on November 10. She faces a much tougher bunch in this spot, has failed to win a graded stake and consistently produces lower speed figures than the main contenders. Tough to endorse.

#7 HOT AUTUMN ran against older in a first level allowance race last time out going this seven-panel distance, where she dueled on the lead before drawing off to score by seven lengths. This is her graded stakes debut, so she is facing stiffer company here, but we know she likes this distance and she doesn’t have to deal with older foes this time. One to keep an eye on at a price.

#8 CATHEDRAL READER ships west for Midwest conditioner Dallas Stewart after two hard fought allowance wins, one at which came going this distance. In both victories, she stalked the pace and ran by her rivals late, so expect her to employ those same tactics here. She finished a well beaten fifth in the Prioress (G2) to DREAM TREE, but Stewart has pulled off upsets in stakes races before and this filly has good recent form. Isn’t shipping out here for just the warm weather.

#9 SPICED PERFECTION comes off a career best effort in the restricted Cal-bred Betty Grable Stakes going this distance last month at Del Mar, easily defeating her rivals. The second and third place finishers both came back to win, we know she likes this seven-furlong distance and she is projected to get a good stalking trip. Should be marked as a contender.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 DREAM TREE – Undefeated filly checks off all the boxes.
2. #7 HOT AUTUMN – Last win was a beauty.
3. #8 CATHEDRAL READER – Shipper looking for her third straight win.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #9 SPICED PERFECTION – Won key race.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections in exactas and use the same strategy while also putting #4 EMBOLENDED underneath in trifectas and make a token win wager on my longshot value play.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$8 Exacta: #5 DREAM TREE over #7 HOT AUTUMN and #8 CATHEDRAL READER and #9 SPICED PERFECTION ($24).

$2 Trifecta: #5 DREAM TREE over #4 EMBOLDENED and #7 HOT AUTUMN and #8 CATHEDRAL READER and #9 SPICED PERFECTION ($24).

$2 Win: #9 SPICED PERFECTION

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