$200k Mathis Brothers Mile

$200,000 Mathis Brothers Mile (G2)

Santa Anita Park

Race 7 (Wednesday, December 26, 2018: 5:50 p.m./ET; 2:60 p.m./PT)

Mile on the turf (three-year-olds)

Talented Southern California turf router RIVER BOYNE looks to cap off an outstanding year on Opening Day at The Great Race Place while French import SEJO and European shippers GIDU, COMBATANT and GEMONTEER add depth to a solid edition of the 2018 Mathis Brothers Mile (G2). We’ll begin our analysis with the rail post position entrant:

#1 SEJO (IRE) makes his first start in North America while also running on Lasix for the first time. Now trained by Breeders’ Cup Classic winning trainer John Sadler, this French import won a pair of handicap races at distances longer than a mile-and-an-eighth, so one has to ponder whether he will be better running farther.

#2 CHOO CHOO made his first start off a six-month break in last month’s restricted Let It Ride Stakes at Del Mar and finished a respectable second after stalking the pace. Second start off the layoff, this colt by ENGLISH CHANNEL may be able to take a step forward, but he faces a tougher group in this spot. Siding with others.

#3 GIDU (IRE) invades from the East Coast for trainer Todd Pletcher and while his last three races have resulted in off the board finishes, two of those races came in sprints (one on dirt). But if you go four starts back, he only lost by a length-and-a-quarter to RAGING BULL, who has since won Grade I, and RIDE A COMET, who wheeled back a month later and beat #5 RIVER BOYNE in the Del Mar Derby (G2). Has an upset chance.

#4 HARDBOOT makes his first start off a six-month vacation for trainer Michelle Dollase. He broke his maiden in 2017 and his only victory against winners came in the Silky Sullivan Stakes at Golden Gate Fields in April. Passing.

#5 RIVER BOYNE (IRE) cuts back one furlong after a solid second place finish behind the Chad Brown trained RAGING BULL in the Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar. He is a perfect five-for-five over the Santa Anita turf course and has dominated the Southern California three-year-old turf division throughout the second half of the year. Will be tough to beat.

#6 COMBATANT moves back to the turf after a third place finish in the Zia Park Derby on dirt last month. But he is just 1-for-13 lifetime and will need to pick up the pace to compete against these.

#7 DESERT STONE (IRE) ran a super third in the Twilight Derby (G2) over this course two starts back, finishing a half-length behind #5 RIVER BOYNE and East Coast shipper HAVE AT IT. Exotics contender with his best race.

#8 FIGHT ON was no match for #5 RIVER BOYNE when finishing well behind that rival at astronomical odds (116/1) in the Hollywood Derby (G1). Will be a similar longshot in this race also.

#9 GEMONTEER has produced a pair of in-the-money finishes in his two most recent races, both of which were run in South Florida, but his only graded stakes try resulted in a last place finish.

#10 SHIVERMETIMBERS tries turf for the first time after this son of SHANGHAI BOBBY posted a victory against older allowance runners on dirt last month at Del Mar (a surface he loves). His pedigree doesn’t scream turf, but two Hall of Famers (Smith and Hollendorfer) teaming up adds some appeal to a horse that has decent form.

#11 SNAZZY DRESSER won a starter allowance race in gate to wire style last time out and takes a major bump up in class for his first try against stakes company. This front-runner is the likely pacesetter but he’ll have a hard time sticking around down the stretch. Tough post and looks outclassed.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 RIVER BOYNE – May prove too tough.
2. #3 GIDU – Sneaky.
3. #10 SHIVERMETIMBERS – Connections win big races.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 COMBATANT – Late kick might get him in the tris and supers.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks in an exacta.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$25 Exacta Box: #5 RIVER BOYNE and #3 GIDU

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