Thursday, November 29, 2018

$750k Cigar Mile Handicap (G1)

$750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (G1)

Aqueduct

Race 9 (Saturday, December 1, 2018: 3:45 p.m./ET; 12:45 p.m./PT)

One mile on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)

Eclipse Award winning jockey Javier Castellano has won this prestigious race the last two years (SHARP AZTECA and CONNECT). Will this year be the hat trick? Let’s review the field in post position order:  

#1 MENDELSSOHN cuts back a quarter mile after a respectable fifth place finish behind ACCELERATE in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) last month. The Aidan O’Brien trainee also ran second in the Travers (G1) and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) earlier in the year. A half-brother to champions BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF, this colt should be respected and world-renowned jockey Ryan Moore flies in to ride, which only adds to the appeal.

#2 SUNNY RIDGE finished a length behind #8 PATTERNRECOGNITION in his most recent start to date, the Kelso (G2), going this one-mile distance. Son of HOLY BULL has never finished off the board in five career races going this distance. Top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for trainer Jason Servis and they win at a 34% clip when teaming up together. Consistent sort warrants a look in exotics.

#3 PAT ON THE BACK is a New York-bred facing open company in this spot. Four-year-old by CONGRATS comes off a win in the Empire Classic going a mile-and-an-eighth and cuts back in distance for his first try against open stakes company. This is a steep bump up in class; will be the acid test.

#4 STAN THE MAN has never finished off the board in seven career races at Aqueduct. The John Terranova entrant was last seen winning a seven-furlong allowance race over this track and, two starts back, romped in a starter allowance. But he’s playing a whole new ballgame here, going from allowance company to legit Grade I competition, and he’ll need to run the race of his life to win. Will be a longshot.

#5 COPPER TOWN makes his second start off a year layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher. In his first start off the break, this four-year-old blew the doors open against NW2X allowance company at Keeneland, winning the race by an impressive five lengths. He has tactical speed and can stalk the pace or go to the lead. Might be the real deal.

#6 TRUE TIMBER finished second, but beaten by almost 10 lengths, to runaway winner NO DOZING in the Bold Ruler (G3) going seven furlongs last time out. He may be best going distances shorter than a mile as his most recent win came going six furlongs two starts ago and as the races get longer, he doesn’t tend to improve. Looking elsewhere.

#7 TIMELINE sat off the pace and rallied for a third place finish behind stablemate #8 PATTERNRECOGNITION and #2 SUNNY RIDGE in the Kelso (G2). There is rain in the forecast and if it materializes, his connections will be happy as this one is two-for-two over wet ground, while earning a career high 101 Beyer Speed Figure in one of those races.

#8 PATTERNRECOGNITION is the second Chad Brown entrant in this race. This improving five-year-old has only finished worse than second once in his last 10 starts, with that lone off-the-board finish coming when making his first start off a seven-month layoff. In his most recent start, the son of ADIOS CHARLIE made his stakes debut in the Kelso (G2) and won the race in gate to wire fashion. He won’t have an easy lead this time with #1 MENDELSSOHN signed on, but he is ultra consistent and clearly has talent. One of the major players.

SELECTIONS

  1. #5 COPPER TOWN – Lightly raced, but ultra talented.
  2. #1 MENDELSSOHN – Royally bred colt looks like the one to beat.
  3. #8 PATTERNRECOGNITION – Unbeaten at track and at distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 TIMELINE – The ‘other’ Chad Brown.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice. 

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #5 COPPER TOWN

The post $750k Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) appeared first on TVG BLOG.

No comments:

Post a Comment