Thursday, November 29, 2018

$200k Claiming Crown Jewel

$200,000 Claiming Crown Jewel

Gulfstream Park

Race 11 (Saturday, December 1, 2018: 5:06 p.m./ET; 2:06 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)

Opening Day of the four-month Winter meet at Gulfstream Park begins with the Claiming Crown series, a group of nine stakes races designated for horses that, depending on the designated stakes event, have started for a particular claiming price (or lower) since 2017. The feature race on the card is the $200,000 Claiming Crown Jewel, for three-year-olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $35,000 or less since January 1, 2017 and attracted a full field of 14 runners. Let’s get to business:  

#1 RICH DADDY is an old pro that makes his 57th lifetime start. Eddie Kenneally trainee most recently ran second in the slop in a sold allowance race at Churchill Downs. However, his last win came in 2017 when he defeated #7 FLOWERS FOR LISA by a head over this track, a surface in which he is 9-for-21 over. Siding with others.

#2 DIAMOND BACHELOR is a combined 0-for-20 in 2017 and 2018. Next.

#3 ST. LOUIE GUY makes his first start off a two-and-a-half month break after finishing third in two straight allowance races (one at Saratoga and the other at Delaware Park). Ricardo Santana Jr. hops aboard for the first time for high percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro and they win at a 42% clip together. One to consider.

#4 PRINCE TITO went off at 20/1 in his last start and finished 23 lengths behind the winner, #5 RACE ME HOME. A total form reversal is needed.

#5 RACE ME HOME (IRE) won a starter allowance race in his first start off the claim for Mike Maker and now bumps up in class. He likes this nine-panel distance, having won two of three at this distance, but this will be his first career start at Gulfstream Park.

#6 AZTEC SENSE looks for his eighth win in a row for trainer Jorge Navarro, one of three he entered in this spot. The one to beat.

#7 FLOWERS FOR LISA drops in class after a six-length loss in the Lukas Classic (G3) behind legit Grade I caliber talent MIND YOUR BISCUITS. Before that effort, this five-year-old was competitive against allowance company at Saratoga. He likes to be on the lead, so expect jockey Paco Lopez to gun him from the gate and try to take ‘em wire to wire. The second Navarro entrant.

#8 CHRIS AND DAVE ran over a sloppy track at Belmont Park on October 11 and won a second level allowance race by two lengths that day. He is three-for-five over a wet track, but is just 3-for-24 when competing on a fast track. If the track comes up wet, I’d like him more.

#9 ZULU faces easier company in this restricted stake for claimers after a solid second place finish in a second level allowance race at Churchill Downs for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Well-bred son of BERNARDINI likes the Gulfstream Park dirt, with three wins and two seconds from seven lifetime starts over the surface. The last time he ran this mile-and-an-eighth distance, he ran second in the Skip Away Stakes (G3) here last year. Another contender for Navarro.

#10 BAD STUDENT makes his first start for trainer Mike Maker, who wins at 15% first off the claim. Top Gulfstream winter meet rider Luis Saez hops aboard. A possibility.

#11 JUAN AND BINA is 1-for-31 lifetime. Exotics candidate at best.

#12 THE SCOTSMAN broke his maiden by 14 lengths when sprinting on this track in August but has since failed to win against starter allowance and allowance optional claiming foes. Most recently, this gelding ran third behind #5 RACE ME HOME and #2 DIAMOND BACHELOR in a starter allowance race on November 4. He’ll need to make up a few lengths on those rivals while facing other toughies here. Improvement needed.

#13 CAPITAL LETTERS makes his first start for trainer Anthony Quartarolo, who wins at just 4% first off the claim. This six-year-old most recently ran fourth as the favorite in a $25K claimer at Churchill Downs. It’s awfully hard to improve off of Mike Maker, who previously conditioned this gelding, and others signed on here appear classier. Passing.

#14 UNBRIDLED HOLIDAY gets back to dirt after a second place finish in a starter allowance going a mile-and-a-half on turf. He draws a brutal poor position and his best speed figures and performances have come on the lawn. Going in another direction.

SELECTIONS

  1. #6 AZTEC SENSE – Win machine.
  2. #7 FLOWERS FOR LISA – Could prove tough to reel in on the lead.
  3. #9 ZULU – Navarro has a legit shot to complete the trifecta.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 RACE ME HOME – Improved off the claim last time.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top three picks in exactas, key my top pick over my other three selections in trifectas and make a straight win bet on my top pick.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 BUDGET)

$5 Exacta Box: #6 AZTEC SENSE and #7 FLOWERS FOR LISA and #9 ZULU ($30).

$5 Trifecta Box: #6 AZTEC SENSE over #7 FLOWERS FOR LISA and #9 ZULU ($10).

$10 Win: #6 AZTEC SENSE

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