$100,000 English Channel – Belmont Park

Race 8 (Saturday, October 27: 4:35 p.m./ET; 1:35 p.m./PT)

Mile on turf (three-year-olds)

With the threat of rain in the forecast, handicappers should prepare for either a wet turf course or a ‘moved to the main track’ dirt race. With that in mind, let’s try to put together this handicapping puzzle, beginning with the runner who draws the inside post position:

#1 MO DIDDLEY is entered for the main track only. His only race over a sloppy track resulted in a five-and-three-quarter length romp against New York-bred allowance company last month. Contender if the race changes surfaces.

#2 SAND DANCER has raced on turf in all 11 lifetime starts. His last afternoon appearance resulted in a solid second place finish in the Hill Prince (G2) at 23/1. All of his races over good ground were solid, so there’s reason to believe if the turf is wet, he will be OK over it.

#3 SMOOTH B looks like a horse that was entered to run on a wet dirt track. This guy has failed to win on turf in three races, but he is two-for-three when racing on a wet dirt track. In fact, two starts ago he won an allowance at Parx by six lengths over a sloppy course. One to keep an eye on if the race is moved. 

#4 ROBIN HOOD makes his stakes debut after a three-length allowance win on Presque Isle’s synthetic surface on September 17. His only career win on turf came in a maiden special weight at Delaware and he has yet to run over a dirt track. That said, the fact that Graham Motion enters this colt here must mean that the well-respected horseman has confidence in this one.  

#5 HIZEEM has run three races, all on turf, for trainer Chad Brown. The son of CITY ZIP was last seen running third at Saratoga, losing by a head after losing ground on the turn for home and getting bumped around down the lane. His maiden win at Saratoga two back, stalking the pace before outgaming his rivals to win by a head, was solid. Chad Brown must always be respected, especially in turf races. One to consider.

#6 THERAPIST freshens up and drops in class after a poor performance in the Saranac (G3) at Saratoga, finishing seventh of nine. The Christophe Clement trainee’s has six wins from nine career starts, with his last win coming in the New York Bred Stallion Series over this turf course in August, where he is a perfect three-for-three.

#7 ROSE’S VISION won the New-York bred Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga on August 27 and took a two month break between races for this start against open company. Two starts ago, this guy ran second in the Toronto Cup at Woodbine, so clearly he has good form right now, but keep in mind that his trainer, Stuart Simon, only wins at 7% with his trainees’ making their first start off a break between 61-180 days.

#8 GOLDEN BROWN won the Kent (G3) at Delaware four starts ago but has failed to duplicate that effort since. Last time out, he finished sixth behind #2 SAND DANCER in the Hill Prince (G3) and finished off the board in two prior starts. Poor recent form is concerning.

#9 MAJESTIC DUNHILL stretches out farther than six-and-a-half furlongs for the first time in his career. Whether he will be at his best going eight furlongs remains to be seen.

#10 MEDAL OF HONOUR (GB) comes from the Joseph O’Brien yard overseas and will be racing with Lasix for the first time in this spot. He has not been competitive in his past three starts, all against older handicap (non-group) company. That said, maybe the addition of Lasix will help him, plus John Velazquez is slated to ride, which only makes this guy more intriguing.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 THERAPIST – Freshens up for a top turf trainer.
2. #5 HIZEEM – Improving colt from the Chad Brown barn.
3. #10 MEDAL OF HONOUR – European shipper must be respected.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 MO DIIDLEY – MTO entrant is one-for-one in slop.

WAGERING STRATEGY

If the race stays on turf, I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top three selections in exactas. If the race is moved to the main track, I’ll make a straight win bet on my longshot value play, who clearly loved the slop as evident in his effort two races ago.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

 TURF: $20 Win: #6 THERAPIST

$5 Exacta Box: #5 HIZEEM and #6 THERAPIST and #10 MEDAL OF HONOUR ($30).

MAIN TRACK: $50 Win: #1 MO DIDDLEY

 

 

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