$100,000 Autumn Miss (G3) – Santa Anita Park

Race 10 (Saturday, October 27, 2018: 7:30 p.m./ET; 4:30 p.m./PT)

Mile on turf (three-year-old fillies)

A full field of 14 fillies is set to voyage one mile on the firm turf course at The Great Race Place this Saturday. We’ve got lots to cover; let’s get to handicapping:

#1 PULPIT RIDER is a Cal-bred facing open company. The daughter of LUCKY PULPIT most recently ran sixth in the Unzip Me Stakes down the hillside turf course, finishing behind #4 MS BAD BEHAVIOR and #14 HEY NEGRITA. Her best races have come going this mile distance, but she’s up against it from a class perspective.

#2 SO HI SOCIETY (IRE) gets a two month freshening after finishing far behind in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) at 87/1. Her only win in North America from five starts came against allowance company at Belmont Park. Another one that needs to pick up the pace.

#3 STREETWITHNONAME finished last in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) at 68/1. She is 0-for-two on this turf course and has failed to be competitive when facing graded stakes company. In a tough spot here.

#4 MS BAD BEHAVIOR ran a respectable fourth in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and most recently completed the runner-up spot in the Unzip Me Stakes down the hillside turf course last month. A consistent filly, she has hit the board in all five starts over the Santa Anita lawn, with her last win coming at this distance over this course in the China Doll Stakes last March. A must use in exotics.

#5 TOINETTE makes her first start off a three-and-a-half-month break for trainer Neil Drysdale, who wins at a 20% clip with runners making their first start off a break between 61-180 days. This daughter of SCAT DADDY won the Edgewood (G3) two starts ago, defeating Grade I winner RUSHING FALL in the process. Her most recent start to date, a poor effort in the Belmont Oaks (G1), was in a ten-furlong event. Getting back to a shorter distance today should help, as should the freshening. Major player.

#6 TESORA ships in for high percentage trainer Jonathan Thomas after a win in the six-furlong Christiecat Stakes at Belmont Park. Her only career turf route win was against allowance company last year at Del Mar. Drayden Van Dyke rides for the first time. Mark her down as a contender.

#7 K P PERGOLISCIOUS (IRE) tries stakes company for the first time after a third place finish (while only beaten a half-length) against allowance company. Her lone win in five career races came against a maiden special weight group at Del Mar last August. She’ll need to run a career best race to win.

#8 WEST PALM BEACH (IRE) won an allowance race in her first start in the United States for trainer Simon Callaghan last March. Since then, she has only run twice, with both races resulting in off the board finishes against stakes company. Flavien Prat was aboard last time out and opts to ride #5 TOINETTE, so Brice Blanc picks up the mount for the first time. Improvement needed.

#9 STREAK OF LUCK looks for her third win in a row after a pair of allowance wins. One of the aforementioned victories came against Cal-bred allowance foes while her most recent triumph, back on September 28, came against open company. Despite having run 13 races already, she makes her graded stakes debut here. ‘Big money’ jockey Mike Smith has been aboard for her past two wins and retains the mount.

#10 MOVIE MOMENT has finished off the board in four straight races, including two starts ago when she was a non-factor in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). Most recently, the John Shirreffs trainee was soundly defeated in an allowance race over this turf course. Siding with others.

#11 RAYYA tries turf (and blinkers) for the first time for trainer Bob Baffert. She ran a distant second (against the boys) in the UAE Derby (G1), but her two North American races since then have been poor. Playing against.

#12 SPRING LILY makes her turf debut after most recently running third in the Torrey Pines Stakes to TRUE ROYALTY, who has come back to run two poor races since then. ‘LILY’s best races have come going one turn and she has failed to be competitive against easier while racing two turns. Unless the move to the grass helps her, she needs to run faster to be competitive.

#13 FLAMMETTA ran a better than looked fifth in her last start, the San Clemente (G3), in which she only finished a length-and-a-half behind the winner. Additionally, she loves this turf course, having won three of four career races over it. However, an outside post position is something this filly must overcome. Won’t be easy.

#14 HEY NEGRITA finished fourth in the Unzip Me Stake down the hill last time out. Her most recent win came two starts ago when routing at Del Mar against allowance company. Here’s another one that could be compromised by a poor post position and she is facing others who appear a bit classier. Will need to run an A+ race with some racing luck along the way.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 TOINETTE – Class of the field.
2. #6 TESORA – Fits with this group.
3. #4 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR – Consistent filly merits respect.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #9 STREAK OF LUCK – Win streak plus Mike Smith equals a second look.

 WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks in an exacta.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$25 Exacta Box: #5 TOINETTE and #6 TESORA  

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