DOING YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Horseplayers in 2018 have more news, data, and information available to them than ever before. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Internet makes most of that information available to everyone. Speed figures, sheets, workout reports, trainer interviews, replay videos and many other handicapping resources are all available online. Some of it is free, some require paying subscription fees, but the info is out there for anyone that wants it. 

But instead of relying on the work of other experts and analysts, consider doing your own research.

Earlier this month, I turned a crazy thought into a research project: Could I find a simple and efficient way to make money at Kentucky Downs?

With Saratoga and Del Mar winding down, I usually plan on a short break while getting ready for Keeneland and Breeders’ Cup. But the five-day Kentucky Downs meet seemed like a small enough meet that it could be beatable with the proper plan of attack.

Kentucky Downs racing attracts many of the top horses, trainers and jockeys in North America but trying to handicap races full of horses from many different tracks is a difficult task. In recent years, horses from Saratoga that seemingly had a class and speed figure edge had underperformed. The outcome of many races seemed almost random. So I had pushed Kentucky Downs aside as an oddity — until this year.

Rain forced many races off the turf at Saratoga this year (50 races in all). As a result, many turf horses trained all summer in upstate New York only to scratch rather than run on a sloppy sealed main track. I realized many top outfits had horses ready to roll, but needed a grass race. Kentucky Downs seemed like a logical place to run top horses for big money. With that notion in mind, what started as a vague observation turned into a research project.

My thesis was simple. Perhaps the horses from Saratoga that put forth a maximum effort in previous years ran poorly when they shipped south for their next start. Furthermore, if horses at stabled at Saratoga didn’t get to run on the turf this year, would they run huge when they showed up at Kentucky Downs?

I quickly confirmed (online) that the number of races taken off the turf at Saratoga for the past several meets were:

2015: 8

2016: 25

2017: 27

2018: 50

Knowing most outfits try to run their very best at Saratoga, it made sense that turf horses would give a 100% effort at Saratoga, then potentially bounce in their next start. But when turf horses didn’t get to show their best at Saratoga in 2018, I thought they might just fire somewhere else when trainers shipped them to find a turf race.

I decided to almost blindly bet all Saratoga starters and play against all ‘midwest locals.’ The results were immediate – Saratoga shippers went 5-for-14 on Opening Day at Kentucky Downs, including several price horses.

By the time the meet ended, I had made a decent profit, but wanted to research further to have information to use in 2019. I compiled a day-by-day tally of all horses that shipped to Kentucky Downs and found some notable trends:

• Saratoga shippers were ‘helped’ by a rainy summer in New York, creating a pool of New York shippers ready to run, resulting in 18 total wins for the meet.
• Arlington horses went 0-for-53.
• All European starters (three-for-six) were American-based runners returning from races in Europe, or making their first U.S. start after shifting to a U.S.-based trainer.
• Of the 55 first time starters, only three were post-time favorites but two of those three favorites won (both were CD based). In general, firsters were rarely a factor.
• California shippers had two wins from 10 starts.
• Kentucky Downs quick-return runners were heavily bet, but only went one-for-10 in their second start of the meet.
• Maker (9/44), Casse (4/17) and Ward (3/21) were the only three trainers with three or more winners.

All of these insights were acquired using free Equibase race results charts, a pencil, paper and a hand calculator. But I feel like I know more about Kentucky Downs now than I ever could have learned from workout reports, interviews, tip sheets and listening to racing analysts.

For a couple hours’ worth of homework, I now have a clear picture of what kind of horses won at the 2018 Kentucky Downs meet and can refresh this analysis each year going forward and feel like I am playing with my own ‘inside information’ rather than relying on typical handicapping factors.

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

The post DOING YOUR OWN RESEARCH appeared first on TVG BLOG.