Race 10 (Saturday, September 29, 2018: 5:50 p.m./ET; 2:50 p.m./PT). Mile and a quarter on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
In a time span covering 99 years, champions like EASY GOER, CIGAR, MAN O’WAR, CITATION, WAR ADMIRAL, JOHN HENRY and FOREGO have won one of Belmont’s most prestigious races, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). This year, a field of eight are signed on to compete for a ‘Win and You’re In’ for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Let’s analyze the field for the 100th edition:
#1 CARLINO makes his Grade I debut after a sharp allowance win at Saratoga four weeks ago. The son of LEMON DROP KID has only raced once in a graded stake, that lone run coming in the Brooklyn Handicap (G2) where he ran fifth at 65/1. All signs indicate he’ll need to pick up his feet to be competitive.
#2 GRONKOWSKI ran a terrific second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) two starts back but came back two-and-a-half months later and ran poorly in the Travers (G1), finishing eighth of ten. The good news is we know he likes this track but he faces older horses for the first time and his most recent effort is concerning. Needs to bring his “A” game.
#3 MENDELSSOHN was last seeing running a game second in the Travers (G1) to Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contender CATHOLIC BOY. He’s another three-year-old facing older foes for the first time, but keep in mind he is a royally bred, being a half sibling to BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF and has a world-class jockey/trainer combo in Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore.
#4 PATCH was a better than looked fifth in the Woodward (G1) last time out when finishing about four lengths behind YOSHIDA (G1) and GUNNEVERA, both of whom are bound for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). This Todd Pletcher trainee has run over this dirt track twice before and ran well both times, finishing third in the 2017 Belmont Stakes (G1) before winning an allowance race in May of this year.
#5 UNO MAS MODELO looks to win his fourth race in a row. His last two victories came against tough allowance company at Saratoga. The problem is…both races were sprints. Now he has to go a mile-and-a-quarter while facing much tougher than what he’s used to seeing. It’s a lot to ask of this one to win a race of this caliber. Pass.
#6 DIVERSIFY is strictly the one to beat as the Richard Violette trainee comes off a fast, wire-to-wire score in the Whitney (G1), while two starts ago, he won the Suburban (G2) by six lengths over this track. He’ll be tough to beat.
#7 DISCREET LOVER hit the board in the Suburban (G2) and the Whitney (G1), both times finishing behind #6 DIVERSIFY, but most recently ran a disappointing 12th in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga. It looks like a minor award is a ceiling unless he takes a major step forward.
#8 THUNDER SNOW (IRE) makes his second start off a five month break. He ran the best race of his career in his last start before the layoff, the Dubai World Cup (G1), where he defeated a large field of ten that included top older horses WEST COAST, MUBTAAHIJ, PAVEL and FOREVER UNBRIDLED. In his first start since then, he ran eighth in Great Britain going a mile-and-five-sixteenths on turf. He’s never finished worse than second in five career starts on dirt, but whether he can duplicate that Dubai World Cup (G1) run remains to be seen.
SELECTIONS
- #6 DIVERSIFY – Too fast for these.
- #3 MENDELLSOHN – Royally bred colt merits respect after Travers (G1) run.
- #4 PATCH – Likes this track.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 GRONKOWSKI – Scared Justify for a moment in the Belmont (G1).
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections in a trifecta plus play him to win.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Trifecta: #6 DIVERSIFY over #2 GRONKOWSKI and #3 MENDELSSOHN and #4 PATCH ($30).
$20 Win: #2 GRONKOWSKI
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