$500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) – Belmont Park

Race 8 (Saturday, September 29, 2018: 4:42 p.m./ET; 1:42 p.m./PT). Mile and a half on the turf (for three-year-olds and upward)

The $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) is one of four graded stakes races on the ‘Super Saturday’ card at Belmont Park, with the winner earning a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). Let’s try to pick the winner:

#1 ROBERT BRUCE (CHI) holds an eye-popping eight-for-nine lifetime record. His only career loss came over this turf course when losing by a length to #6 SPRING QUALITY, #3 SADLERS JOY and #2 HI HAPPY in the Manhattan (G1) on June 9. He rebounded after that off-the-board finish to win the Arlington Million (G1) last time, but now he, once again, faces the three aforementioned rivals who beat him in June. If anybody will have a turf horse ready to rebound, it’s Chad Brown. Obviously a major player.

#2 HI HAPPY (ARG) has done his best work over the Belmont turf course. In fact, he won the May 12 Man O’War (G1) Stakes over this Belmont lawn going a mile-and-three-eighths in May and came back to run third behind #6 SPRING QUALITY and #3 SADLER’S JOY in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont Stakes Day. His last two starts, both over the green at Saratoga, were subpar. Recent form isn’t great but he gets back to a course we know he enjoys. Mixed feelings.

#3 SADLER’S JOY went off favored in the Sword Dancer (G1) and finished sixth as the favorite. In his four races before that start, he finished behind #8 CHANNEL MAKER, #3 SPRING QUALITY and #2 HI HAPPY in four separate races. We’ll mark him down as an exotics contender and try to beat him on the win end.

#4 CARRICK is a three-year-old facing older in this spot. He finished third in the Kent (G3) two starts ago but most recently blew up the tote board in the Secretariat (G1), pulling off a 38/1 shocker over quality turf horse ANALYZE IT. This is another significant step up in class as he faces older and more experienced horses. Tough task.

#5 TEODORO (IRE) is a European making his stateside debut while racing with Lasix for the first time. His last start was a poor effort against handicap runners in Great Britain but two starts ago, this gelding won a Group 3 going a mile-and-five-sixteenths. World-renowned rider Ryan Moore rides which is appealing, but whether this horse has the class to beat the best in here is a question mark.

#6 SPRING QUALITY lost to #1 ROBERT BRUCE by three-quarters of a length in his first start of the year on May 5, came back to defeat that rival as well as #3 SADLER’S JOY and #2 HI HAPPY in the Manhattan (G1) over this track and most recently dealt with a rough trip in the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga while finishing third at 5/1. He gets back to a turf course he likes and his form has never been better for trainer Graham Motion. With a better trip than in his last afternoon appearance, look for him to run a big one.

#7 HIGHLAND SKY went off at 19/1 in the Sword Dancer (G1) and finished a mediocre fifth behind #8 CHANNEL MAKER and #6 SPRING QUALITY. He has failed to hit the board in three starts against older graded stakes company. Looks outclassed.

#8 CHANNEL MAKER was a hard-trying second in the Sword Dancer (G1) after staking a slow pace. His last win came in the Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga over soft ground, defeating Sword Dancer (G1) winner GLORIOUS EMPIRE and #3 SADLER’S JOY in the process. The forecast calls for rain on Friday and if the sod is still wet come Saturday, it may play to his advantage. One to consider.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 SPRING QUALITY – In Graham Motion We Trust.
2. #1 ROBERT BRUCE – Loves to win races.
3. #3 SADLER’S JOY – With his best run, he’s right there.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 CHANNEL MAKER – Look for him to make a splash if the turf comes up soft.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #6 SPRING QUALITY

$5 Exacta Box: #1 ROBERT BRUCE with #6 SPRING QUALITY with #8 CHANNEL MAKER ($30).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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