THE PACIFIC CLASSIC (G1) LEADS THE PARADE

Accelerate will face seven seemingly overmatched rivals in the $1,000,000 TVG Pacific Classic (G1) this Saturday. Others entered for the main event on a stakes-filled 11-race card include Dr. Dorr, Beach View, Pavel, Prime Attraction, Roman Russo, Two Thirty Five and The Lieutenant. Having won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and Gold Cup (G1) earlier this year, Accelerate will try to sweep the three west coast 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 dirt races — a feat only previously accomplished by Best Pal, Game On Dude and Lava Man.

And over a span of eight days this month, there are three Grade I races at ten furlongs;  The Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga are both this Saturday, while the Travers Stakes will be run at Saratoga next Saturday.

During this same abbreviated time period, there are also five stakes races at Saratoga at 1 1/8 miles: the Personal Ensign (G1), the Albany Handicap, Fleet Indian Stakes, Saratoga Dew Stakes and Summer Colony Stakes, giving horseplayers a chance to play multiple dirt route stakes in quick succession at distances that have become a rarity in our sport.

What used to be a ‘classic’ dirt distance is now more like a marathon for most contemporary runners. And while turf marathons remain more plentiful in North American stakes races, they are routinely dominated by European shippers (or Chad Brown).

Few horses (unless your name is Americam Pharoah, Arrogate, Justify, Cigar or Alysheba) that dominate the mile to mile-and-an-eighth stakes races are able to duplicate their best efforts going a mile-and-a-quarter. But since champion horses like these are rare, most mile-and-a-quarter races in recent years have been won by one of two types of runners.

The first winner type is a top middle distance runner stretched to the limit, such as previous champions California Chrome, Silver Charm and Holy Bull. Their mile-and-a-quarter races didn’t have the top-notch speed figures they generated at shorter distances, but were still good enough to win when pressed to the longer distance. These top talents can win on raw speed, but are vulnerable to a fast pace setting it up for an off-the-pace closer.

This year Accelerate fits into this ‘raw talent stretched to the limit’ category. Twice a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) contender, in 2018 he has stretched his speed to 10 furlongs twice while facing fields lacking any true quality stayers. His peak performances may be at middle distances, but his mile-and-a-quarter efforts are good enough to fend off foes at the more uncomfortable route of ground. Three-for-five at Del Mar, he has proven he likes the track, can get the distance and can handle the competition facing him in the Southern California handicap division.

The second type of winner is the less athletic ‘stayer’, such as Sea Hero, Tiznow or Funny Cide, who often failed to dominate stakes at shorter distances, but can beat just about any good middle distance horse stretched to a mile-and-a-quarter.

A key handicapping principle to remember at these classic dirt distances is any horse that has previously won a Grade I or Grade II race at the 10 furlong distance has a huge edge over runners that have superior speed figures at shorter distances yet remain unproven at a mile-and-a-quarter. 

Interestingly, Wonder Gadot fits that criteria and will be an interesting prospect in Saratoga’s Travers Stakes (G1) next Saturday. Though she is the first filly to try the Travers since the 1970’s, she has dominated males in two consecutive races at a classic distance with five and six length wins. She has been competitive yet not dominating in performances at middle distances, but has been a sensational stayer when going beyond 1 1/8 miles. In the Travers (G1), she will face Good Magic and a number of other talented three-year-old colts that have shown they appear limited to races at nine furlongs or less.

Requirements to play 1 1/4 Dirt Stakes Races:

• Favor horses proven at 10 furlongs over runners with superior speed figures earned at shorter distances.
• If no runner has distance experience, side with a horse bred to last a longer distance, yet still showing speed figures competitive enough to put him/her in the same zip code as the top figure horses.
• Avoid slow runners bred to run marathon distances, yet lacking stakes-quality speed, for they are too unlikely to be worth backing – even as longshots.

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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