Race 9 (Saturday, August 18, 2018: 5:40 p.m./ET; 2:40 p.m./PT)
Mile and a quarter on the main track (three-year-old fillies)
Three-year-old Champion filly MONOMOY GIRL sits out the feature race on Saturday at Saratoga, which gives other fillies in her division a chance to shine and earn a very prestigious Grade I on their resume. Let’s analyze the eight runners signed on and try to pick a winner:
#1 PIEDI BIANCHI makes her second start off a six-and-a-half month layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher. In her only start this year, this filly ran third as the favorite in a six-furlong allowance sprint against older. Now she stretches out four more furlongs while facing a lot tougher than she’s ever seen before. Longshot.
#2 ESKIMO KISSES has finished fourth in her previous two races, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Last time out, she ran fourth, beaten over eight lengths by MONOMONY GIRL and #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU. Her only win against winners came in an allowance event on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. She is bred to like the classic distance and top jockey Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time. Maybe.
#3 MIDNGHT BISOU ran second, beaten three lengths in the CCA Oaks (G1) to champion MONOMOY GIRL. She got tired in the final sixteenth that afternoon and skeptics may wonder whether she’ll be better going another furlong, being by champion sprinter MIDNIGHT LUTE. This gal has already won the Mother Goose (G2) and the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and trainer Steve Asmussen has had a terrific Saratoga meet, winning at a 25% clip. Mike Smith flies in to ride once again. The one to beat.
#4 SHE’S A JULIE is the second Steve Asmussen trainee in the field. This daughter of ELUSIVE QUALITY comes off a sharp looking win in the Iowa Oaks (G3) and now faces steeper company. She recorded a sharp five-furlong bullet work on August 5th and Ricardo Santana Jr. and Asmussen are a hot jockey/trainer combo. There is some upside here.
#5 AUSPICIOUS BABE is the most lightly raced filly in the field with just three starts to her name. After running poorly in her career debut, she broke her maiden going two turns at Churchill Downs and came back to win an allowance race over the same track. Now she makes her stakes debut while stretching out another furlong and a half. Dallas Stewart trains and we all know what he is capable of doing with longshots in big stakes races.
#6 FIGARELLA’S QUEEN was second but soundly defeated by #8 TALK VEUVE TO ME in the Indiana Oaks (G3) at odds of 13/1 last time out. Her only win against stakes company came in the ungraded Sanibel Island at Gulfstream Park in the winter and her most recent victory came in an allowance race against older fillies and mares at Churchill Downs two races back. The connections may be looking for some Grade I black type here as she has yet to run a race that indicates she can beat the best slated to run in this spot.
#7 COACH ROCKS has a career high Beyer Speed Figure of 83, a number that is low compared to the major contenders in this field. Last time out, this gal lost by 13 lengths to RED RUBY in the Delaware Oaks (G3), a filly that would have been a major contender if she were entered in this spot. Improvement needed.
#8 TALK VEUVE TO ME has never finished worse than second in five career races. This daughter of VIOLENCE scored a big win in the Indiana Oaks (G3) last time out, winning the race by almost five lengths at 1/9 odds. Her only two losses came when finishing second to MIA MISCHIEF, who came back to run second in the Test (G1), and a runner up effort in the Acorn (G1) to MONOMOY GIRL on Belmont Stakes Day. If she can get the mile and a quarter distance, she is in with a solid chance. The ‘now’ horse.
SELECTIONS
- #8 TALK VEUVE TO ME – Improving sort may be ready for a career best race.
- #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU – Classiest filly in the field.
- #4 SHE’S A JULIE – The ‘other’ Asmussen.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 ESKIMO KISSES – Pedigree suggests she’ll enjoy going the classic distance.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll play an exacta box with my top two picks.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$25 Exacta Box: #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU and #8 TALK VEUVE TO ME
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