$250,000 Del Mar Handicap (G2) – Del Mar

Race 6 (Saturday, August 18, 2018: 7:40 p.m./ET; 4:40 p.m./PT)

Mile and three-eighths on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

A full field of 12 is signed on for the Del Mar Handicap (G2) to compete for a ‘Win And You’re In’ spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). We begin our analysis with the inside post position:

#1 KENJISTORM freshens up three months after a second place finish in the Charlie Whittingham (G2) to #6 ITSINTHEPOST and is one of three runners signed on for trainer Phil D’Amato, who won this race last year with HUNT. Has never won a graded stakes.

#2 FLAMBOYANT (FR) finished fifth behind #9 IT’SINTHEPOST and #1 KENJISTORM in the Charlie Whittingham (G2) and also freshens up for his return to racing action. His best race to date came running eight furlongs at Golden Gate Fields when defeating a full field in the San Francisco Mile (G3). But he is 0-for-3 when traveling 11 furlongs, with just one third-place finish, indicating he may be better going a bit shorter. Pass.

#3 WHOOP WHOOP (NZ) adds blinkers while making his second start off a year layoff for trainer Jeff Mullins. This gelding most recently finished a non-threatening seventh against allowance company going a mile-and-a-sixteenth. Maybe he wants to run all day, but whether he has the class to win this race remains to be seen.

#4 YA GOTTA WANNA is the second Phil D’amato entrant in this race. He makes his stakes debut in this spot after two off the board finishes in second level allowance races. Keep in mind that in his previous two races, he has finished behind #11 RITZY A.P., who will be a longshot in this spot. A career best race is needed for this guy to be competitive.

#5 UNAPOLOGETIC was badly beaten in the Cougar II Handicap going a mile-and-a-half on dirt, but you can be a bit forgiving as his past performances indicate this gelding is much better on turf. In his last afternoon appearance on the lawn, he earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure going a mile-and-a-quarter against second level allowance company. He’s another one that needs to run faster to take home the top prize.

#6 ITSINTHEPOST (FR), the 123 lb. highweight, ran an uncharacteriscally poor race in the Eddie Read (G2) coming off a two month freshening. Getting back to a marathon distance today, he probably faces easier company here than what he saw in the Eddie Read (G2). Wouldn’t be surprised at all if he rebounds in a big way, but do note he is 0-for-10 lifetime over this turf course.

#7 MULTIPLIER finished fifth, beaten two-and-a-half lengths, in the Eddie Read (G2). This four-year-old colt is 3-for-12 lifetime, with his biggest win coming in the Illinois Derby (G3) on dirt as a three-year-old. Tyler Gaffalione flies in to ride, but this ‘capper feels an exotics placing may be his ceiling.

#8 ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR used to be the top marathon turf horse in California but has slowed down at the age of seven. He has finished off the board in all three starts this year, though keep in mind all of those races came going a mile-and-a-sixteenth or less. His best races have come when racing at distances from 10 to 12 furlongs and it’s interesting that jockey Joel Rosario, in town to ride ACCELERATE in the Pacific Classic (G1), is willing to hop back board. Give this guy one more shot now that he’s going longer?

#9 COLONIST stretches out three furlongs after two off the board finishes in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) and Wickerr Stakes. In both races, he sat well off the pace before rallying late to lose by two lengths. The last time he ran farther than a mile on the turf, he finished fourth behind #6 ITSINTHEPOST in the San Luis Rey (G2).

#10 RITZY A.P. wheels back in just one week after winning the J.T. Grace Stakes at Santa Rosa going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf. He is facing a lot tougher in this spot than what he saw in Northern California and when racing in Southern California, he has failed to win second level allowance races in three consecutive starts. Looks like he may be outclassed against this Grade 2 field.

#11 CASHMAN (FR) invades from Europe and makes his first start for the Neil Drysdale barn. He most recently won an ungraded stake going a mile-and-three-sixteenths on the turf in Germany but has failed to win a graded stake overseas. Drysdale opts not to run this horse with Lasix.  

#12 FASHION BUSINESS (GB) failed to fire when finishing eighth of 10 in the Eddie Read (G2). His only win in North America came in a first level allowance race. However, he put up a very respectable effort two races ago when only losing by a length in the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park. Flavien Prat opts to ride this gelding over #1 KENJISTORM, who is trained by the same conditioner (Phil D’Amato) as #12 FASHION BUSINESS. Hmmm.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 ITSINTHEPOST – Racing at his best distance.
2. #8 ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR – Won this race two years ago.
3. #12 FASHION BUSINESS – His effort two back was a beauty.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #9 COLONIST – May enjoy getting to run longer.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$5 Exacta Box: #6 ITSINTHEPOST and #8 ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR and #9 COLONIST ($30).

$20 Win: #6 ITSINTHEPOST

 

 

 

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