INSIDE POST AND EARLY SPEED EQUALS ROUTE VICTORIES

The Keeneland Spring meet is my favorite betting meet of the racing year. Since first visiting the track 25 years ago, it has been an annual handicapping vacation for yours truly every spring. The cards are filled with stakes races, classy turf affairs and the first baby races for two-year-olds. Now that the track is back to being a dirt surface instead of the synthetic Polytrack, it is also a race course where early speed and good trips are keys to winning — especially for races around two turns. But this is not a ‘golden rail’ bias handicapping angle. Instead, this is about the importance of early speed and good positioning, which are handicapping fundamentals to factor in to dirt route race analysis at your favorite track as well.

Any horse lacking early speed is at a disadvantage in North American dirt racing. And closers that do win must have the ability to get within striking range of the leaders before turning for home. Often this is aided by the pacesetters cooking each other in the opening fractions. Nevertheless, the most talented early stalking type horses usually get to the winner’s circle, and the closers and deteriorating speedsters fight it out for the place and show spots.

In most races regardless of distance or surface, the inside post positions (1-8) fare much better than the outside posts (9-12). The rare and consistent exception occurs where certain tracks show a negative stat for horses breaking from the rail in sprints starting in a chute. The long chutes at Churchill Downs and Saratoga have been known to hold to this exception in some of their meets. But in two-turn races that start within an eighth of a mile of the clubhouse turn, getting a wide first turn trip all the way to the back stretch is almost always bad news.

Post position alone is not the disadvantage – an outside post is often the setup for a horse getting a wide trip. Post position is never a reason to completely eliminate a horse, nor is it ever a huge positive factor. A bad post position is simply one more thing to be wary of if planning a major wager.

An outside post increases the chances of being forced wide around turns. This seriously hurts any runner’s chances at just about any racing venue. Keep in mind that racing wide is a very valid excuse for a poor effort – wide trips are often ignored by the betting public, but can lead to a horse having no chance of being in contention despite running just as fast and exerting itself just as hard as the winner.

Likewise, those who rely on closers to fatten their bankroll will experience heartbreak often and only score now and then.

As for the all-too-often ‘speed bias’ declaration from racing analysts — it is a label used far too often. A true bias is rare and very noticeable. For example, the 2018 Dubai Racing Carnival saw dirt racing dominated by a bias, as approximately 80 main track races were won by whichever horse made the early lead and moved over to the inside. The frontrunner often drew off by open lengths, and did so whether the horse was a strong race favorite or a complete longshot. The trip seemed more important than ability. But again, such biases are a rarity.

No one is going to get rich waiting for lone frontrunners that are classy enough to run away and hide from the competition. The betting public is too attuned to these runners. But one kind of speed play still continues to deliver win after profitable win.

The combination of an inside post and enough early speed to hold the lead and the rail in a route race is dangerous. This setup does not require obvious superior speed, just an indication that the horse breaking from one of the inside three post positions will break sharply and be the inside leader when the field hits the first turn. It’s a tactical advantage that cannot be understated since the good trip the horse enjoys is further aided by the wide trips the other frontrunners must endure. Plus the inside position also ensures that any late runners will have to take the overland route at some point to win.  

Requirements to play Inside Route Speed:

– Two-turn route race.

– Horse in post 1, 2, or 3 projects to be a frontrunner.

– All other runners with early foot are positioned on the outside.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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