$1,000,000 Bluegrass (G2) – Keeneland

Race 10 (Saturday, April 7, 2018: 6:23 p.m./ET; 3:23 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

Keeneland’s opening weekend also coincides with it’s premier race card of the Spring meet this Saturday featuring 11 races, five of them graded stakes, being led by the $1,000,000 Bluegrass Stakes (G2), which awards 100 Kentucky Derby (G1) points to the winner. Let’s get to the analysis:

#1 ZING ZANG broke his maiden at the Fair Grounds on December 16 but since then has finished off the board in three straight starts against stakes company. In his most recent afternoon appearance, he finished 10 lengths behind MAGNUM MOON in the Rebel (G2). Improvement is needed.

#2 SPORTING CHANCE defeated #10 FREE DROP BILLY in the Hopeful (G1) last summer. The $575,000 sale purchase then took a five-and-a-half month break and returned to the races to run third (beaten seven lengths) in the Southwest (G3), followed by a five-and-three-quarter-length loss in the Rebel (G1). This will be the third start in his form cycle since the vacation which means he could improve for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

#3 CALIFORNIA NIGHT added blinkers and easily defeated allowance company at Aqueduct in a one-turn mile event on March 17. This is his first time going two turns. He is quick in the early going but there is other speed signed on to go out and pressure him. Will be a tough task.

#4 KANTHAKA routed for the first time in the San Felipe (G2) and finished third behind MCKINZIE and BOLT D’ORO, two monsters that won’t be competing in this spot. He likes to sit off the leaders and make one run and the good news for him is there should be a fast pace to run into. Also, second time routing means he may take a step forward.  Interesting contender.

#5 QUIP was solid in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), defeating Sam F. Davis (G3) winner #12 FLAMEAWAY and CATHOLIC BOY, who came back to run fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). Maybe he is getting good at the right time?

#6 MARCONI was purchased for $2,000,000 as a yearling and broke his maiden by a large margin at Aqueduct in his second career start. He subsequently has run third in the Withers (G3) and fifth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and looks like a couple notches below the best signed on, but Todd Pletcher is his trainer and we all know the good work he does in these Derby preps.

#7 BLENDED CITIZEN came with a good run down the lane to defeat #14 ARWAK and 10 others in the Jeff Ruby (G3) at Turfway Park on March 17. He faces much tougher company here and keep in mind he is 0-for-3 in the money on dirt while 4-for-5 in the money on turf and synthetics. Play against.

#8 GOTTA GO has run in two route races and finished well behind the winner on both occasions. His best races have come going one turn, including when he was victorious in the Street Sense Stakes against ungraded stakes company. At this point, it looks like he is a better one-turn horse. Pass.

#9 TIZ MISCHIEF broke his maiden over this track last fall. He then finished a terrific second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), but has finished double digit lengths behind the winners (QUIP and AUDIBLE) in two route tries since the last race of his two-year-old campaign. Will need to find a way to turn the tables to compete in here.

#10 FREE DROP BILLY won the Breeders Futurity (G1) over this track as a two-year-old, so he is another one that fancies the Keeneland main track. His most recent effort was a subpar third as the betting favorite in the Gotham (G3), but he did run a credible second two starts ago to subsequent Florida Derby (G1) winner AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull (G2). Long story short, his best makes him competitive against this group and we know he likes this track. Contender.

#11 GOOD MAGIC was a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), took four months off and came back to run third in the Holy Bull (G2). You can be a bit forgiving of his last start as that was his first race in a while and he should be a lot more fit this time around. Given he ran so well in the Breeders’ Cup, his best makes him the one to beat.

#12 FLAMEAWAY won the Sam F. Davis (G3) in early February, which was his first win on dirt. He then came back to run second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) behind #5 QUIP, who will be a main contender in this race. If he can figure out a way to make up a length on the aforementioned rival, he has a chance to do some damage.

#13 MACHISMO ran fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 37/1. Before that, he scored a romping maiden win at Gulfstream. This is a tough spot and his post position is far from ideal. Siding with others.

#14 ARAWAK ran third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway. Son of UNCLE MO adds blinkers, but his post position is poor and he appears outclassed on paper.

#15 DETERMINANT is on the also-eligible list and will need a scratch to draw into the race.

SELECTIONS 

1. #5 QUIP – Well bred colt continues to improve.
2. #11 GOOD MAGIC – Breeders’ Cup Champ.
3. #10 FREE DROP BILLY – Scored a big Grade I win over this track.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #4 KANTHAKA – West Coast invader.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #5 QUIP

 

(Bankroll at -$340.00 after 2018 Week #5 Based on $50 Wagers; -$200.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

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