Saturday’s racing action includes one of the biggest international events on the annual racing calendar: The Dubai World Cup (G1) Day. In North America, this means early morning stakes action even before Gulfstream Park kicks off its Florida Derby (G1) Day card. This particular day of stakes action is a time to pay close attention to the running styles best suited to the unique course conditions of the host track.
The track at Meydan includes a large oval turf course on the outside, with the main (dirt) track inside of it. The turf course allows for a straight 3/4 mile turf sprint, one-turn races from a mile to 1 1/4 miles, and two-turn races of 1 1/2 miles to 2 miles and is a giving, tiring surface that favors horses that conserve energy and rally late. It is therefore no surprise that since moving to Meydan in 2010, the turf races on the Dubai World Cup card have been dominated by European runners.
Runners from America, Hong Kong, Japan and Australia often show too much early foot in these event and give way late to the rallying Euros. It’s rare to see a gate-to-wire winner in the grass races, so look for horses that settle into the ‘peloton’ and make a move in the final furlongs. The turf racing tends to be very formful overall (again, from a European form perspective) and there is no reason to shy away from well-intended classy runners that are well backed in the wagering.
Meanwhile, the inner oval at Meydan is a dirt track. It is similar in dimensions to Churchill Downs, with an angled one mile chute, and a full quarter mile stretch run to the finish. Originally a synthetic surface, the oval was switched to dirt in 2015, and has been much more favorable to American runners than the Tapeta surface the race was run on from 2010 to 2014.
It is important to note that this surface has been prone to extreme biases favoring early speed and rail-skimming rides — and this season is no exception. It has been very noticeable in 2018 in the prep races leading up to the World Cup that the dirt course has a ‘golden rail’. In races from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, the winner is usually the horse that breaks on the lead and immediately angles over to the rail.
Additionally, the second and third place finishers are usually the horses that play follow-the-leader along the rail and hang on for place and show while horses racing off the rail fade from contention down the stretch. This has led to many results with fields strung out at the finish over many lengths, with horses that raced wide around the turns often finishing many lengths behind. As a result, winners usually look unbelievably dominant and also-rans look too poor to explain.
The impact for horseplayers is to bet against low odds horses that lack the early speed to gain a forward, inside position. Gaining good position often is the result of a skilled rider, good fortune and a lot of racing luck, so complete outsiders that get good trips can hit the board and create huge exacta, trifecta and superfecta payouts. If you can isolate a horse as the most likely early leader, you can play that horse with confidence to win, and spread with high-odds longshots underneath.
In the main event, the Dubai World Cup (G1), this could mean a showdown between Pegasus World Cup (G1) runner-up West Coast, and local prep winner, North America. Under normal circumstances, a classy stalker like Thunder Snow would be the choice to run down the tiring speedsters, but on this course (if the bias is holding up), the likely outcome will be a victory by whoever seizes control of the lead and rail entering the clubhouse turn.
Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.
The post PLAYING THE DUBAI WORLD CUP – A TALE OF TWO SURFACES appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER.
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