$125,000 Gazebo – Oaklawn Park

Race 8 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:38 p.m./ET: 2:38 p.m./PT)
Six furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds)

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has a strong 1-2 punch in the feature race on Oaklawn’s Saturday afternoon card. Will Asmussen add another stakes win to his 2018 season or will trainers’ with the four other entrants in the race play spoiler? Let’s try to answer that question:

#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE broke his maiden for a $20K tag five starts ago but has failed to beat winners since that victory. However, he has run second on three separate occasions in allowance optional claiming races and stacks up with most of these in terms of speed figures. May be best used underneath in exotics, if anywhere.

#2 DIRECT DIAL won the Texas Stallion Stakes at Retama Park in November before returning to the races three months later and running second as the odds on favorite in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston. Maybe he needed that last race off the brief break, and note ‘Dial’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, wins at a 21% clip with runners making their second start off a layoff between 45-180 days.

#3 MITOLE has run three career races and every start has been better than the last, culminating in his most recent race with a dominating ten-length win, defeating nine others rivals while earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. The one to beat off the ‘freakish’ maiden score for the other Asmussen runner.

#4 BOURNE IN NIXA broke his maiden in his second lifetime start and came back to win an allowance race smartly at Churchill. In his most recent start, the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs, this Steve Margolis trainee finished sixth and last going seven furlongs. Reasons to believe he can run better than his last include maybe he didn’t like the bullring configuration of Delta.

#5 INGE ran third, beaten three lengths, over the sloppy Oaklawn dirt last time out. Interestingly enough, he finished behind #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE that day. Now he makes his first start over a (projected) fast dirt track. On paper, it looks like he needs to run a bit faster than he has been to be competitive, but he is conditioned by a trainer (Norman McKnight) that wins at a 32% clip.

#6 WILD CARMELO was beaten 14 lengths in his last start, an allowance race over this track. His best race to date came against allowance company at Remington Park, where he finished two lengths ahead of #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE in December.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 MITOLE – Maiden win was impressive.
2. #4 BOURNE IN NIXA – Cuts back in distance.
3. #2 DIRECT DIAL – Second off the brief layoff.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE – Longshot to consider in exotics. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections in exactas and trifectas.

BANKORLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exacta: #3 MINOLE over #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($20).

$5 Trifecta: #3 MINOLE over #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE and #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($30).

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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