Many times, post position is hardly a factor when handicapping a race. Other times, it is a huge x-factor. This year, the second running of the Pegasus World Cup Championship Invitational (G1) at Gulfstream Park could be heavy impacted by post positions.
Here’s why:
– The race will be run at 1 1/8th miles on the main track at Gulfstream Park, with the start/finish line very near the clubhouse turn.
– We are mid-way through the 12th meet since the track was renovated in 2006 and statistics overwhelmingly show that races at this distance have heavily favored the inside five post positions.
– Races run at this distance have had very few winners outside of post 8, and breaking from the far outside in a large field makes it seemingly impossible to win — only super star Big Brown in the 2008 Florida Derby (G1) and one other horse have won from post 12 in the last twelve years.
– The bias is so severe that there was talk this week of backing up the starting gate 40 yards behind the normal starting position to give those horses who drew outside extra time before entering the first turn.
So on Wednesday morning when Gun Runner drew post 10 and top contenders West Coast, Sharp Azteca and Collected all drew inside of him, the world’s richest race suddenly became a lot more interesting from a betting perspective. And since all three of the aforementioned runners have carried their early speed two-turns in graded stakes competition before, it’s hard to imagine Gun Runner getting anywhere near the front without using a ton of energy in the opening furlongs. This makes him a vulnerable favorite even though on paper he is clearly the superior athlete.
So who can upset the race? The selection is Sharp Azteca.
Sharp Azteca is the ‘speed of the speed’ at this distance because he has been a demon on the front end in shorter one-mile races. He failed to wire the field in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) but was a game second and has won beyond a mile in graded stakes in the past. He may look to be a shaky prospect to hold off this field going nine furlongs — but he has a good chance the way this race shapes up on a speed-friendly and rail-friendly biased track. If Collected or West Coast try to outrun him early, they are doomed. Likewise, if Gun Runner tries to duel with him early, he will also have little left in the tank for the stretch run. So being the ‘speed of the speed’ is a huge advantage for Sharp Azteca.
Normally, in a race where the top prospects all have the same front running style, there is a good chance of a pace meltdown. That being said, Gulfstream Park is rarely a track that yields closers winning from far off the pace. Any thoughts of a stretch runner like Gunnevera, War Story or Seeking the Soul closing to win from 30 length back would simply be bucking a lot of history at Gulfstream Park that favors horses with early zip. As a result, the 25/1 or longer odds on the closers are appropriate for longshots with an outside chance of benefiting from a total meltdown.
My wagering strategy for the race will be to play Sharp Azteca to win, and use him in exactas over Gun Runner, Collected and West Coast. That is my primary play. I will also key him with Gun Runner and the closers Gunnevera, War Story and Seeking the Soul in trifectas. Playing Sharp Azteca over those four horses in $2 trifectas is a $24 trifecta part wheel. And playing the closers on top for 50-cent trifectas is good insurance that could pay $1,000+ and costs just a few dollars more.
A final word of betting strategy advice. Many horseplayers will count on Gun Runner vanquishing the top contenders on the front end, and holding on to win while longshot closers clunk up for place and show. If true, closers at huge odds finishing behind Gun Runner the exotics will be over-bet and pay off at underwhelming prices. Exotics will only pay well if Gun Runner is defeated. If you believe Gun Runner can be beaten by your choice of upsetter, make sure you make a profit on your win bet regardless of the exotics. If you are going to take a stand against the 2017 horse of the year, you better make sure you make money if you’re right.
Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.
The post THE 2018 PEGASUS WORLD CUP appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.
No comments:
Post a Comment