As 2017 draws to a close, there are two betting situations I look back on that really defined my year. These two situations deal with opposites ends of the spectrum: the chronic maiden and the seemingly invincible superstar.
Playing maiden races full of repeated losers is risking money on horses that have already let their connections down numerous times, along with all the players that backed them at the betting windows. Winter is a time of year when most top venues have a mix of older maiden races. Some of these races are full of first time starters, while others are loaded with horses that have had many chances to win without success. The lesson is to play against any Maiden Special Weight favorite that has previous experience and shows only sub-par speed figures in its career.
Horses that have a race or two usually hold a big advantage over first time starters – but not always. When the experienced horse take all the money but has not run fast enough to win a typical maiden race, it’s likely that the horse is a false favorite and can be played against. Instead, players should prefer either a lightly raced longshot with room to improve, or a first time starter from a good debut sire and/or from a win-early outfit.
Horses with experience and sub-par speed figures should only be played if they offer longshot odds and a case can be made for future improvement (e.g. last race excuse, more suitable distance, etc). Too many maidens, especially late in the year, get played because they keep finishing in the money, or beating half the field. These are only potential positive signs if the horse is dropping in class to face much weaker talent. Otherwise, another mid-pack effort is probably what the next result will be. Only play a horse with sub-par speed if there’s reason to believe their best is yet to come AND there’s a lot of betting value in the opportunity.
On the other end of the spectrum are betting races with a seemingly unbeatable superstar, like Arrogate was in the G2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on July 22nd. Not seen since winning the G1 Dubai World Cup in March and facing only four other opponents, the betting public was sure the horse could not lose. This, despite:
- It was well known that this race was only a prep for the $1 million Pacific Classic.
- It was well known that the horse was not cranked up 100% for this race.
- It was well known that many previous American champions that have triumphed in Dubai have returned only to never get back to the top of their game.
Nevertheless, Arrogate went off as the 1/20 betting favorite with a huge minus show pool wagered on him.
In scenarios like this, have the courage to play against any odds-on favorite where the event has generated a minus show pool, by betting all other contenders to show.
This angle was highlighted by a number of handicapping authors in the 1980’s and 1990’s, including Mark Cramer and Dick Mitchell, and takes advantage of a mathematical aberration in the pari-mutuel wagering system that remains a favorite of mine, and many other experienced handicappers.
When an odds-on favorite receives enormous betting action in the show pool, it can generate a ‘minus’ pool where so much money is bet on one runner that even by paying out a mere $2.10, the track will be forced to pay out more money than it receives from the bettors. If, however, the odds-on favorite finishes off the board, the show prices can be fantastic.
Which is exactly what happened when Arrogate stunned the crowd with a 15-length loss while finishing fourth. The show payoffs on the race were $22.00, $67.40 and $38.20. Betting $2 on all four opponents of Arrogate yielded $127.60 for an $8 bet. And it was a bet where no matter what the outcome was, the bettor would get back at least $4.20.
While this was not one of my biggest show payouts on a race, it will certainly be one of the most memorable. I will stress that I am a big fan of Arrogate as a legitimate star, but the mathematical opportunity in this situation is always worth playing.
So remember these two angles in 2018 and take advantage of the betting opportunities that arise at the two extremes of the sport: the runners that can’t seem to ever win, and the horses that the public thinks can’t be beaten.
Happy New Year!
Requirements to Play Against Slow Experienced Maidens:
– Favorite has raced without displaying the average speed figure required to win a maiden race.
– Available options include experienced longshots with reasons to expect improvement, and first time starters from good debut sires, and/or good win-early connections.
Requirements to Play Against Horses That Can’t Lose:
– An odds-on favorite is bet heavily enough to create a ‘minus’ show pool.
– The field is small enough, leading to a manageable number of show bets to cover all of the horses.
Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.
The post DEALING WITH HORSES THAT CAN’T WIN AND HORSES THAT CAN’T LOSE appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.
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