by Tom Quigley
$250,000 Dixiana Elkhorn (G2)
Keeneland
Race 9 (Saturday, April 20, 2019; 5:30 p.m./ET; 2:30 p.m./PT)
One mile and a half on the turf (four-year-olds and up)
Ten turf marathoners are set to compete for a quarter million dollar purse with the rolling hills of Lexington, Kentucky to serve as the backdrop. Let’s introduce you to each runner and try to come up with the winner:
#1 VETTORI KIN (BRZ) comes off a two-length loss going a mile-and-a-sixteenth fifteen days ago against allowance company. In recent starts, this guy has finished behind #6 TIZ A SLAM, #7 BIGGER PICTURE and #10 ZULU ALPHA. Will likely go off at a big price.
#2 HUNTER O’RILEY is a deep closer who has finished behind #10 ZULU ALPHA in his two most recent afternoon appearances. His last win occurred in 2017 and recent form indicates he will need to improve to make an impact here.
#3 LEITONE (CHI) won a Group 1 in South America going this distance on grass before moving to North America last year. His only career start in the U.S. on turf resulted in a 10 length loss against allowance company. Looking elsewhere.
#4 SOGLIO is one of three entrants in the race for trainer Mike Maker. Son of SCAT DADDY last won five starts ago against allowance company while going this distance over this turf course. Two and three starts back, he suffered narrow defeats behind #8 RED KNIGHT and #10 ZULU ALPHA in separate stakes events. I’m expecting an in-the-money finish, at the very least.
#5 CANESSAR (FR) finished fifth behind #10 ZULU ALPHA and #4 SOGLIO two starts ago in the William McKnight (G3) over yielding turf at Gulfstream Park. That said, he was making his first start off a five-and-a-half month break and encountered a traffic filled trip that day. Most recently, he finished fourth behind the Chad Brown trained FOCUS GROUP in the Pan American (G2) while finishing ahead of #4 SOGLIO. Third start in the form cycle, there is reason to believe he can run a peak race. Possible upsetter.
#6 TIZ A SLAM won the Nijinsky (G2) going this distance at Woodbine last summer, but has failed to win in four starts since. Notice his best races have come when racing the lead and he hasn’t been the pacesetter in his last four races. Maybe he tries to steal it on the front end this time like he did in the Nijinsky (G2).
#7 BIGGER PICTURE failed to fire in the Pan American (G2), his most recent afternoon appearance, but defeated an easier group when winning by three-and-a-half lengths in the John B. Connelly (G3) at Sam Houston two starts back. Last year, he lost by a neck in the Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) at Del Mar and was third in the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth. The second Mike Maker trainee figures to get support in the wagering. Classy dude.
#8 RED KNIGHT won the H. Allen Jerkins at Gulfstream Park going TWO miles in December. This gelding is an impressive six-for-nine on turf, but all of his career victories have come against easier company. This is his graded stakes debut.
#9 FINAL COPY most recently ran fourth behind #10 ZULU ALPHA and #7 BIGGER PICTURE in the Sycamore (G3) over this course in October. Is 0-for-7 when traveling 12 furlongs, making others look more appealing.
#10 ZULU ALPHA is a former $40K claimer looking to win his third graded stakes race in a row. Rounding out the trio of Mike Maker entrants, this six-year-old gelding is two-for-four going this distance and has top rider Jose Ortiz aboard. The one to beat.
SELECTIONS
1. #10 ZULU ALPHA – Same sire as WINX and ZENYATTA.
2. #7 BIGGER PICTURE – Classy marathoner merits respect.
3. #6 TIZ A SLAM – Dangerous if on the lead.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 CANESSAR – Third start in the form cycle.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta Box: #5 CANESSAR and #7 BIGGET PICTURE and #10 ZULU ALPHA ($30).
$20 Win: #10 ZULU ALPHA
The post $250K Dixiana Elkhorn appeared first on Horse Racing News, Betting Previews & Picks by TVG Blog®.
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