Play Fewer Races and Bet More When it Counts

By Dean Arnold

“For most players, an improved return on investment does not depend on more good bets, but fewer bad ones.”  – Mark Cramer.

This was advice I read back in 1996 and it was so simple yet profound that I took the time to postmark the page and highlight the words in Mark’s great book, Kinkier Handicapping.

Handicappers will make more money at the races if they avoid: 

• races where there are no angles or stand-out reasons to back a runner.
• races where the contenders are at lower than fair odds (you agree with the public so much, you have no edge).
• races where there is a lack of talent (maiden claiming races, for example).
• races where the top horses speed and class-wise are from o’fer trainers and/or ridden by o’fer jockeys.

And this was exactly the key to my recent vacation to Oaklawn Park. With only two days of racing, I was faced with just 19 local races to handicap, so there was a real temptation to play every race. But Oaklawn is a winter track that features both top-class racing for generous purses and bottom level and state-bred races for cheaper type stock. 

It’s a mix of both ideal and less than ideal races for handicappers. I passed on a pair of maiden races full of older Arkansas-bred horses that had many chances to run and had little to nothing to show for it.  

The money I did not wager on those races was used to double my ‘best bets’ on the races later in the card. By focusing on four or five races a day and ignoring the other half of the card, I was able to double my exotic investments.

The strategy paid off wonderfully. The boredom of passing half of the card was more than offset by the thrill of having bigger winning bets on my key races, enabling me to experience back to back winning days in a big way.  

Had I played every race, I may have broke even at best, despite the fact many of my best bets were winners. For this weekend, the willingness to pass on below average races was the real key to victory.

Requirements:

• avoid races where there are no angles or stand-out reasons to back a runner.
• avoid races where the contenders are at lower than fair odds.
• avoid races where there is a lack of talent.
• avoid races where the top horses speed and class-wise are from o’fer connections.
• wager more on the races where you do have an edge, angle or overlay working in your favor.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.