$1,000,000 Florida Derby

$1,000,000 Florida Derby (G1)
Gulfstream Park

Race 14 (Saturday, March 30, 2019: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

They’ve saved the best for last at Gulfstream Park this Saturday as the nightcap, Race 14, goes as the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (G1) for three-year-olds eager to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate. Let’s take a closer look at each runner: #1 HIDDEN SCROLL broke his maiden debut in eye-catching fashion, winning the race over a sloppy track by 14 lengths. He came back in the Fountain of Youth (G2), set the pace while setting wicked fast fractions and tired late to finish fourth as the 6/5 favorite. No doubt this guy has a ton of raw talent, but whether he will get a good trip from the inside post is questionable. Nonetheless, he will go off favored and is the one racing fans are paying attention to.

#2 CURRENT tries a fast dirt track for the first time. In his lone career start on dirt, he was badly beaten over a sloppy track. One can be forgiving of that run, though, considering he may have not cared for the wet going. His last afternoon appearance resulted in a third place finish in the Dania Beach on turf and his lone graded stake win was as a two-year-old in the Jessamine (G3) at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher trains; he’s won this race four of the last five running’s.

#3 HARVEY WALLBANGER freshens up for his race after a last-to-first victory at 29/1 in the Holy Bull (G2) in February. Before that effort, he broke his maiden by a half-length as the 4/5 favorite. This race will tell us whether his last win was a fluke or whether it was a legit run from a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender. Plus he should get the right pace to chase as a fast early tempo is expected.

#4 BOURBON WAR was wide on the far turn and swinging for home in his last start, the Fountain of Youth (G2), but rallied on strongly to finish second behind #9 CODE OF HONOR. Two starts ago, this colt won an allowance race and defeated CUTTING HUMOR, who came back to win the Sunland Derby (G3) last week. Irad Ortiz Jr. could have ridden #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY but opts to ride this guy, which is a positive, and there’s reason to believe the added distance in this race will be to his liking. Major player.

#5 EVERFAST ran a gallant second at 128/1 in the Holy Bull (G2) but came back to lose by 18 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (G2). His last start was too poor to ignore. Looking elsewhere.

#6 HARD BELLE has shown front running speed in many of his previous races but has faded badly in almost all of those starts. This colt has no shot to win but will effect the pace scenario considering he will be going at a fast pace early just like he always does.

#7 MAXIMUM SECURITY makes his first start going a route of ground for trainer Jason Servis, who is winning at an incredible 45% clip at the current Gulfstream meeting. Colt by NEW YEARS DAY most recently won a starter allowance optional claiming race by 18 lengths going seven furlongs while earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. Legit contender.

#8 BODEXPRESS is a maiden that routes for the first time. He finished 18 lengths behind #1 HIDDEN SCROLL in a maiden race two starts back and most recently ran second while earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Needs to run the race of his life to win this.

#9 CODE OF HONOR made his second start off a layoff in the Fountain of Youth (G2) last month and defeated #4 BOURBON WAR to the wire. The son of NOBLE MISSION has drilled two bullet workouts since that triumph and is back for more against similar company. He should be running into a fast pace again, so another big run from him would be anything but a surprise.

#10 UNION’S DESTINY was well beaten in the Fountain of Youth (G2), finishing behind #9 CODE OF HONOR, #4 BOURBON WAR and #1 HIDDEN SCROLL at odds of 94/1. Will go off at a big price again.

#11 GARTER AND TIE is another that comes off an off-the-board finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2). His post position is far from desirable and other look more appealing. Tossing.

SELECTIONS

1. #4 BOURBON WAR – Talented colt will be rolling late.

2. #9 CODE OF HONOR – Last start was no fluke.

3. #1 HIDDEN SCROLL – Talent is there to be really, really good.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY: #4 HARVEY WALLBANGER – Faces tougher this time but will get the right set up.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll put all my eggs in one basket with a win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget) $50 Win: #4 BOURBON WAR