$9,000,000 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)
Gulfstream Park
Race 12 (Saturday, January 26, 2019: 5:36 p.m./ET; 2:36 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
The third running of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) features a dozen runners, led by Breeders’ Cup winners ACCCELERATE and CITY OF LIGHT. Both champion equines look to end their racing careers on top with a win in North America’s richest horse race:
#1 BRAVAZO has three bullet works heading into this race. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee most recently put up a good fight when finishing second behind LEOFRIC in the Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs. However, he is 0-fo- 4 at this distance and hasn’t won since a nose victory eleven months ago in the Risen Star Stakes (G3), a race that is restricted to three-year-olds.
#2 SOMETHING AWESOME won the Charles Town Classic (G2) on April 21 before losing two straight races (a 24-length loss in the Pimlico Special (G2) over a wet track and a runner up finish as the favorite against allowance company at Laurel). Keep in mind his most recent effort was coming off a six-month layoff, so he may be more fit second start off the break. That said, others look more appealing.
#3 CITY OF LIGHT was dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), easily disposing of runner up #4 SEEKING THE SOUL and third place finisher #1 BRAVAZO and already owns a win over #5 ACCELERATE, defeating him by a neck in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Why wouldn’t he be able to do it again?
#4 SEEKING THE SOUL ran a good second behind #3 CITY OF LIGHT in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) two starts ago before finishing third as the favorite to LEOFRIC and #1 BRAVAZO in the Clark Handicap (G1). May be a notch or two below the best signed on. #5 ACCELERATE was outstanding in 2018, with victories in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), Gold Cup (G1), Pacific Classic (G1) and Awesome Again Stakes (G1) before capping off his award-winning year with a hard-fought victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Usually runs his best races fresh, which only adds to the appeal considering he has been freshened up two-and-a-half months for this run. The one to beat.
#6 TOM’S D’ETAT looks to win his fifth race in a row while making his graded stakes debut. He is a perfect two-for-two at this distance but now must face some of the best older dirt horses in the world.
#7 TRUE TIMBER ran a terrific race, finishing a close second behind #12 PATTERNRECOGNITION at odds of 31/1 in the Cigar Mile (G1). Before that effort, he finished second to multiple stakes winner NO DOZING in the Bold Ruler (G3), and narrowly defeated allowance company three starts back going six furlongs. However, he is 0-for-2 when going this distance and may be best at shorter one-turn distances.
#8 GUNNEVERA is a blue-collar, hard knocking sort that grinds away and always seems to pick up a check. This Antonio Sano trained entrant ran third in this race last year and most recently finished second behind #5 ACCELERATE in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). His only win in 2018 came against allowance company when dusting the competition over this Gulfstream Park dirt course in August. He seems beatable on the win end but must be respected underneath in exotics.
#9 KUKULKAN (MEX) is a perfect 14-for-14, having won many Grade I’s in Mexico. In fact, he won the Mexican Triple Crown and nobody has come close to beating him. Most recently, he made his U.S. debut in the Caribbean Classic (G1) against other South American imports over this track and won the race by 10 lengths. All that said, he faces a whole new level of competition now and his speed figures indicate he’ll need to run faster.
#10 AUDIBLE makes his third start off a six-month layoff. Before the vacation, this colt ran third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) behind Triple Crown winner JUSTIFY. After taking time off, he came back to easily defeat minor stakes company going seven furlongs and his most recent start to date resulted in a second-place finish-at 1/9 odds in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3). Note that regular rider Javier Castellano opts to ride #3 CITY OF LIGHT instead of this guy. Needs to bring his ‘A’ game.
#11 IMPERATIVE has failed to be competitive in two straight races against allowance company. His best days have passed. Will be a massive longshot.
#12 PATTERNRECOGNITION won the Kelso (G2) in September and came back two- and-a-half months later to score a Grade I win in the Cigar Mile (G1). He has progressed rapidly for Chad Brown barn and makes his first start going longer than eight furlongs in this spot. With such good form, he is a contender that needs to be taken seriously despite his poor position draw.
SELECTIONS
1. #3 CITY OF LIGHT – Looking to go to the breeding shed a winner.
2. #5 ACCELERATE – All class.
3. #8 GUNNEVERA – Always shows up.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #12 PATTERNRECOGNITION – Getting better all the time.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll wager my entire bankroll on my top selection.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #3 CITY OF LIGHT
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