$200k La Prevoyante

$200,000 La Prevoyante (G3)
Gulfstream Park

Race 8 (Saturday, January 26, 2019: 3:00 p.m./ET; 12:00 p.m./PT)
Mile and a half on the turf (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

One of nine stakes races on a terrific 12-race 2019 Pegasus World Cup program, the La Prevoyante (G3) has plenty of runners with Grade I and Grade 2 experience. No surprise to see that trainer Chad Brown has a major contender in this turf event, while top class horsemen Jimmy Jerkins, Graham Motion, Mike Maker and Roger Attfield also saddle talented distaffers. Let’s review the field in post position order:

#1 HOLY HELENA was beaten a neck by #7 SI QUE ES BUENA in her most recent appearance, the Via Borghese Stakes over this turf course while using Lasix for the first time. Has never run this far before and top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rides.

#2 A. A. AZULA’S ARCH won the Maple Leaf (G3) two starts back at Woodbine going a mile-and-a-quarter on their synthetic surface. Her best runs have come on synthetic and she is 0-for-2 on turf. Passing.

#3 ENGLISH AFFAIR was a game winner of the Cardinal (G3) going a mile-and-an-eighth on yielding turf at Churchill Downs on November 22. She freshens up for this and Javier Castellano rides for trainer Rusty Arnold. In with a chance.

#4 BEAU BELLE is still a maiden. Hard to imagine her hitting the board against this type of experienced stakes company.

#5 TRICKY ESCAPE makes her first start for John Servis, who wins at 28% with his new acquisitions. Most recently, the daughter of HAT TRICK ran second in the Long Island (G3) at Aqueduct. There is reason to believe this filly can improve with the significant barn switch and her form suggests she fits with the main contenders.

#6 LA MANTA GRIS was an allowance winner going this distance two starts ago at Keeneland. In her most recent start, she went off at 10/1 in the Cardinal (G3) and finished almost a half dozen lengths behind #3 ENGLISH AFFAIR. The ‘other’ Rusty Arnold trained entrant in the race. #7 SI QUE ES BUENA (ARG) was a Grade 3 winner in Peru before moving to the United States. For trainer Graham Motion, this mare has run twice stateside, losing by a length behind #5 TRICKY ESCAPE in the Long Island (G3), then came back to defeat #1 HOLY HELENA in her most recent start, the Via Borghese Stakes. Third start off a layoff and third start in the United States, she may be ready for a peak effort for a good horseman who does well with turf trainees. Should not be overlooked.

#8 SEMPER SENTENTIAE is the most lightly raced runner in the race, with just five career starts to her name. Her lone victory came against maiden company four starts ago at Belmont. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez rides back, but speed figures indicate she needs to run faster.

#9 SANTA MONICA (GB) failed to fire in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1), which was her most recent afternoon appearance. Before that poor run, this Chad Brown trainee won the Dance Smartly (G2) at Woodbine and finished third in the E.P. Taylor (G1). The one to beat if she puts her best hooves forward.

#10 RAHWAY won a mile-and-a-quarter allowance race on dirt by four lengths before finishing 12th of 13 at odds of 61/1 in her most recent start, the Tropical Park Oaks. Now she faces even tougher company while racing farther than she ever has. Would be a major surprise if she won.

#11 TOP CATS (ARG) makes her second start off a four-month break. In her first start in the United States, this mare went off at 34/1 and set the pace in the Via Borghese before fading and finishing in fourth, behind #7 SI QUE ES BUENA and #1 HOLY HELENA. Not seeing it.

#12 ICKYMASHO (GB) has not won since June, 2017. Tough post makes her assignment even that much more impossible.

SELECTIONS

1. #7 SI QUE ES BUENA – Third start in her form cycle.

2. #9 SANTA MONICA – Trainer/jockey win at a 27% clip together.

3. #1 HOLY HELENA – Likes this turf course.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 ENGLISH AFFAIR – Grade 3 win last time.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on the top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$5 Exacta Box:#1 HOLY HELENA and #7 SI QUE ES BUENA and #9 SANTA MONICA ($30).

$20 Win:#7 SI QUE ES BUENA