$300k Malibu

$300,000 Malibu (G1)

Santa Anita Park

Race 9 (Wednesday, December 26, 2018: 7:00 p.m./ET; 4:00 p.m./PT)

7 furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds)

This Wednesday, one of 14 three-year-old equines will add themselves to a long list of champions that have won the Malibu Stakes (G1), a list that includes racing legends such as FERDINAND, NATIVE DIVER, ROUND TABLE and SPECACTULAR BID. Hall of Famer Bob Baffert saddles four runners in this year’s edition while top East Coast trainers Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown and Dale Romans each ship in with a contender. Here we go:

#1 CALEXMAN recently defeated older colts and geldings in a second level allowance race sprinting six-and-a-half furlongs at Del Mar. Has tactical speed, so expect him to be sent hard to get forward position with the rail draw.

#2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL ships in fresh off a win in the City of Laurel Stakes going this seven furlong distance. Major question is whether he has the class to win this.

#3 COPPER BULLET makes his second start off a fifteen-month layoff for trainer Steve Asmussen. In his first start off the break, this son of MORE THAN READY sat close to the pace before drawing off to defeat older allowance company going this distance at Churchill Downs. Top rider Jose Ortiz rides and this colt should be marked down as a contender.

#4 STILL HAVING FUN won the Woody Stephens (G2) going this distance, but has lost four straight races since, losing to stakes monsters PATTERNRECOGNITION, PROMISES FULFILLED and AUDIBLE. With the right set up and his best run, he has an upset chance.

#5 IDENTITY POLITICS broke his maiden easily going this distance two starts back and comes to Southern California off a neck loss in an allowance race against older. Chad Brown trains and Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and they win at a 27% clip when teaming up together. Another shipper that has appeal.

#6 AXELROD cuts back to one turn after an eight-length loss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Multiple Grade 3 winner finished a length-and-three-quarters behind #13 MCKINZIE in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) two starts ago. However, his four career wins have all come routing, so there is reason to believe he might be better suited going two turns.

#7 SEVEN TRUMPETS was badly beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) when last seen. The Dale Romans entrant is projected to stalk the pace under Robby Albarado, who retains the mount. Merits a second look.

#8 NERO is the first of four Bob Baffert trained entrants in the main body of the field. He makes his second start off a nine-month hiatus after a win against allowance company going six-and-a-half furlongs on November 18. Second start off the break, there’s reason to believe he can improve, but he faces tougher now and two starts ago he finished second, beaten three lengths by #12 KANTHAKA in the San Vicente (G2), so improvement is needed to defeat that rival. Nonetheless, this Baffert trainee must be taken seriously, as should all of his stablemates.

#9 AX MAN is the second equine from the Baffert camp. This first time gelding hasn’t been seen in five months for Baffert, who wins at a 27% rate with his trainees making their first start between 61-180 days. And he runs well fresh, having won his career debut by almost 10 lengths and, coming off a two month layoff in April, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure while defeating #1 CALEXMAN and other allowance foes. He shows blazing fast workouts in preparation for this race and one of Baffert’s go to jockeys, Drayden Van Dyke, rides. Dangerous.

#10 BOBBY’S WICKED ONE broke his maiden in his career debut at the Fair Grounds and has lost five straight races against winners since then. Most recently, the Al Stall Jr. trainee ran second, beaten a nose, by TRIGGER WARNING at Mahoning Valley. A notch or two below the best signed on.

#11 GREYVITOS was badly beaten by #1 CALEXMAN at Del Mar on December 2. Had not competed in six months prior to that race, so there is reason to believe he may have needed the run, but he faces a plethora of highly talented rivals in this spot. Major improvement is needed.

#12 KANTHAKA makes his first start in seven months for Hall of Fame conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins at 14% with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. This colt is three-for-four at Santa Anita and a perfect three-for-three at this seven furlong distance and has posted a number of sharp drills prepping for this. Could be a big threat if he’s fit enough off the vacation.

#13 MCKINZIE regroups after an abysmal performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He faces easier here, that’s for sure, and cuts back in distance for Team Baffert. Note that he broke his maiden over this track going this distance by five lengths in his career debut. Contention runs deep in this race.

#14 SOLOMINI completes the quartet of Baffert trainees and this son of CURLIN hasn’t been seen since a third place finish going two turns in June. He’s a one-paced sort that has a running style that suggests he may be better with more distance. Passing.

#15 SUPER SOL is one of two runners on the also eligible list and would need a scratch to get into the race.

#16 COOL BOBBY would need two defections to draw into the race.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 COPPER BULLET – Asmussen invader has been training at SA for a month.
2. #9 AX MAN – ½ to 2008 Champion female sprinter Indian Blessing.
3. #12 KANTHAKA – Loves this track and distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #4 STILL HAVING FUN – G2 winner.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box all four of my selections in a trifecta and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$1 Trifecta Box: #3 COPPER BULLET and #4 STILL HAVING FUN and #9 AX MAN and #12 KANTHAKA ($24).

$26 Win: #3 COPPER BULLET

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