Thursday, November 29, 2018

$300k Hollywood Derby (G1)

 

$300,000 Hollywood Derby (G1)

Del Mar

Race 7 (Saturday, December 1, 2018: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the turf (three-year-olds)

Closing weekend at Del Mar’s Fall Festival meet features a plethora of turf racing. The main event on Saturday, the $300,000 Hollywood Derby (G1), attracts a full field of 14 talented three-year-olds from all over the country. Let’s get to the analysis:

#1 HAVE AT IT was last seen finishing a half-length behind #4 RIVER BOYNE in the Twilight Derby (G2) at Santa Anita. Before that, this colt won the Hill Prince (G2) at Belmont. David Cohen flies in for the ride for the Clement barn. One to consider.

#2 KAZAN (IRE) finished second in September in the Del Mar Derby (G2), then returned two months later to run sixth behind #4 RIVER BOYNE, #1 HAVE AT IT and #8 DESERT STONE in the Twilight Derby (G2). It’s worth noting that in that last run, this gelding had to swing wide turning for home and the rider lost the whip at the sixteenth pole. Nonetheless, it appears improvement is needed.

#3 RISKY PROPOSITION surprised six other rivals (at 22/1!) in his most recent start three weeks ago in the Let It Ride Stakes. This time around, he faces the toughest field he’s ever gone up against and will need to prove that the last win was no fluke. Playing against.

#4 RIVER BOYNE (IRE) disappointed in the Del Mar Derby (G2), finishing third at even money behind winner RIDE A COMET and #2 KAZAN. He was able to rebound after that subpar effort with a half-length victory in his most recent start, the Twilight Derby (G2). This Jeff Mullins trainee has won five of seven races this year, with three of those victories coming at this nine-panel distance. Major player once again.

#5 FIGHT ON looks to snap a six race streak of not crossing the finish line first (he was DQ’d into a victory two starts back). Passing.

#6 RAGING BULL (FR) is one of two runners shipping across country for this race for trainer Chad Brown. This colt by DARK ANGEL finished off the board for the first time in his most recent start, circling up wide before flattening out late and finishing two-and-a-quarter lengths behind #1 HAVE IT ALL in the Hill Prince (G1). Sure, that last run is cause for concern, but his two and three back efforts, which resulted in sharp-looking wins in the Hall of Fame (G2) and Saranac (G3), were real beauties. Joel Rosario flies in to ride; must respect.

#7 INSTILLED REGARD makes his turf debut for the aforementioned Chad Brown barn. Returning from a four-and-a-half month layoff last time out, this $1,050,000 2-year-old purchase lost by 25 lengths to multiple graded stakes winner MCKINZIE in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Obviously, this one will need to improve significantly off that last run to make an impact here, but Florent Geroux sees fit to ride.

#8 DESERT STONE (IRE) ran a huge race in the Twilight Derby (G2), sitting off the pace before coming with a run to only lose by a half-length to #4 RIVER BOYNE and #1 HAVE AT IT at 37/1. Problem is, this guy will have to face those two rivals again while also having to deal with some other new customers signed on to compete in this spot. Would best be used underneath in exotics, if anywhere.

#9 PLATINUM WARRIOR (IRE) makes his third start in North America after beginning his career in Ireland, where he won a Group 3 going a mile-and-a-quarter. Now in the John Sadler barn (who is winless at the meet), he may want a little more distance.

#10 WAY EARLY is a New York-bred that comes off a fourth place finish (against older) in a New York-bred turf race at Aqueduct over good ground on November 9. He failed to win an allowance race two starts back at Belmont, losing by a nose to allowance caliber runner WINTER UNION. Off his recent form, he’ll need to pick up his feet to win this race.

#11 CARRICK won the Secretariat (G1) at huge odds (38/1), defeating #9 PLATINUM WARRIOR in the process. Most recently, the Thomas Morley trainee lost by 27 lengths to older horses CHANNEL MAKER, ROBERT BRUCE and SADLER’S JOY in the Turf Classic (G1). In the aforementioned poor effort, he ran over soft ground while also facing some of the best older turf horses the U.S. has to offer. He’ll be happy to get back to facing three-year-olds in this spot. A rebound would be far from a surprise.

#12 PUBILIUS SYRUS finished last in the Twilight Derby (G2) behind a number of runners that compete in this spot. The same can be said for his effort two back, in which he was a no-show in the Del Mar Derby (G2). Kent Desormeaux has ridden this horse in his previous seven starts and opts to ride #11 CARRICK. Pass.

#13 PRINCE EARL went off at 4/5 odds in the Let It Ride Stakes and finished fourth, beaten a length behind #3 RISKY PROPOSITION. He has the least amount of experience of anyone in the field, with three career starts to his name. He also removes blinkers for trainer Phil D’Amato, who wins at a 20% clip with that equipment change. Needs to run a career best to win.

#14 CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH is a filly facing boys and draws the undesirable 14-post position. Neil Drysdale trainee most recently won the Sands Point (G2) going this distance over yielding turf at Belmont Park while continuing her improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern. Flavien Prat has ridden this gal in her last three starts and opts to ride #4 RIVER BOYNE, so read into that as you will. Nonetheless, she possesses class and comes from a trainer that knows how to win big turf stakes. Interesting item.

SELECTIONS

  1. #4 RIVER BOYNE – Looks to cap off an excellent 2018.
  2. #6 RAGING BULL – Two words; Chad Brown.
  3. #1 HAVE AT IT – East Coaster ain’t no slouch.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#11 CARRICK – Grade 1 winner.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top three selections in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #4 RIVER BOYNE

$5 Exacta Box: #4 RIVER BOYNE and #6 RAGING BULL and #1 HAVE AT IT ($30).

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