BREEDERS’ CUP GAME PLAN

The Breeders’ Cup is a complex two-day event, with so many betting opportunities that every handicapper feels the limits of his or her bankroll. With so much data, so many news updates, so many wagering options, and above all, so many fit and ready entrants, it is impossible to prepare the morning of each day’s events. An advance game plan for managing your wagering strategy is essential:

– Draft your game plan well in advance. Have an idea of how you want to wager each day. Pay close attention to what wagering options are available – Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, Pick 4s, Pick 5s and Pick 6s. Study each day’s card race by race; first to pick strong contenders, then to develop a wagering strategy.

– Devote more of your bankroll to exotics than usual. The fields are large, full of fit, stakes winning talent. Because it is so difficult to accurately eliminate horses, exotic payouts will be bigger than usual in every race.

– Distinguish your ‘best bets’ from race contenders. Take your one, two or three true best bets, and bet them to win with conviction. Use exotics to capitalize on your opinion, but make sure to get in those serious win bets – a best bet that wins should make you money even if the exotics don’t pan out.

– Similarly, do not wager the same amount of money on each race. Your best plays should get the majority of your investment. If you need to play every race, play the races you feel strongest about with as much money as you can afford, and use token amounts on the other races to try to make a big score. If you only like the 2/1 favorite in a race where you lack any real opinions, don’t spend $12 on tickets with low priced contenders, or bet $10 win and pick up $30 – instead, play a small amount on keying your pick in some exotics that can pay boxcars.

– Pay attention to trainers and jockeys that know how to get the job done in the Breeders’ Cup. A review of the Breeders’ Cup Stats site is crucial (http://stats.breederscup.com). There are a select few riders and trainers that maintain a high win percentage in the Breeders’ Cup. Give these connections extra consideration with any starter they bring to Churchill Downs.

– There are seven turf races. Europeans usually dominate. Kentucky with top quality turf stakes and rich purses has long been a favorite shipping destination for many top European outfits so this year should be no exception. Any European that ships over for a Breeders’ Cup turf event should be considered a contender. The strongest runners in Europe are not always the strongest runners once they arrive in America and race on Lasix. Often European longshots run as well as or better than European favorites that have dominated them overseas.

FRIDAY, DAY ONE — All two-year-old races today and all but one is a two-turn event. Many of the runners in each race have only sprinted. Each event will probably have a sprinter’s pace. This is key! Two-turn stakes experience is crucial. Many top juvenile sprinters have fallen short if asked to go two turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup. Horses will blaze along simply because so many of them have been victorious by blazing along as fast as they can for as long as they can. Pit a group of wire to wire sprinters against one another around two turns, and you create a perfect storm for a pace meltdown that will favor closers.

Juvenile Turf Sprint (Post time 3:21 ET): This is a brand new event and the only juvenile sprint race in the Breeders’ Cup. With no history to go off of and no standouts, this is not a race to take a short price on any entrant.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:00 ET): A full field will careen around the tight turns of CD’s seven furlong turf course in an event that may very well resemble short-track speed skating with 12 tightly-packed fillies looking for daylight at the top of the stretch. Chad Brown’s trainee Newspaperofrecord (IRE) is two-for-two in her brief career and will likely be favored based on her trainer’s success in this event, but I will favor the European fillies and hope for a bit of a price.

Juvenile Fillies (4:40 ET): This race has a trio of very strong contenders in Bellafina, Restless Rider and Serengeti Empress. The race also looks to be loaded with early speed. I will favor Serengeti Empress since she’s already won a graded stakes at the distance at Churchill Downs. I will play longshots on the bottom of exotics hoping the pace leads to chaos in the final furlong.

Juvenile Turf (5:22 ET): Arthur Kitt is a European shipper that comes from connections not well known in the United States, but was classy enough to win at Royal Ascot in one of the most prestigious Euro juvenile races. A key bet for me.

Juvenile (6:05 ET): Code of Honor is a live longshot in another juvenile race that appears to be loaded with early speed. Will pair him up with legitimate Baffert favorite Game Winner and Champagne (G1) stakes winner Complexity.

SATURDAY, DAY TWO — All races today are for horses three-year-olds and up. Judge each entrant based on the best class of race it has won in the past:

— First, prefer multiple Grade 1 winners. These horses are automatic contenders.

— Next, Grade 1 and Grade 2 winners.

— Other top stakes horses should only be considered if they have won at the Breeders’ Cup race distance or farther. This is no time for a horse to step up in class while stretching out in distance.

— This approach will eliminate entrants that have dominated lower levels or shorter distances.

Filly & Mare Sprint (Post time Noon ET): This is the classic seven furlong race problem since six furlong sprinters are rarely as deadly going seven. Finley’sluckycharm is six-for-seven at Churchill Downs, but is just two-for-six at today’s distance. She deserves to be the favorite, but may be vulnerable in the late stages to Marley’s Freedom and Shamrock Rose.

Turf Sprint (12:38 ET): In racing’s own version of Olympic Short Track Speed Skating, literally anything can happen in this five-and-a-half furlong barrel race. This edition looks as wide open as any previous BC turf sprint, and I will look for longshots hoping to invest a little in order to make a big score.

Dirt Mile (1:16 ET): One turn mile races out of the long, crooked chute at Churchill Downs is usually a race with blazing sprint-like fractions early and horses with stamina dominating late. Undefeated Catalina Cruiser ships in from the west coast and will face City of Light. Both are talented middle distance horses that would not be able to handle the mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Classic but look strong here.

Filly & Mare Turf (2:04 ET): A race that was made for Euro domination. Wild Illusion (GB) looks like a solid favorite, but stablemate Athena (IRE) has shipped to America before and won a Grade 1 at a price.

Sprint (2:46 ET): Imperial Hint is the horse to beat, Roy H is the returning champ and Dale Roman’s Promises Fulfilled looks like a serious contender.

Mile (3:36 ET): Another race that was made for Euro domination. I will use longshot Divisidero, who is three-for-four on the Churchill turf including a Grade 1 win on the 2017 Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard. The Americans seem overmatched so if playing against the Europeans, play at a price.

Distaff (4:16 ET): This event is the best $2 million event ever offered for fillies and mares of this generation. The battle between Abel Tasman and Elate in Personal Ensign Stakes this summer seemed to knock both of them off form. Elate is done for 2018 and Abel was off the board at 1/10 in her next start at Santa Anita. Three-year-olds Monomoy Girl and Wonder Gadot ran one-two in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at this track, at this distance. I will play them the same way again.

Turf (4:56 ET): This is Europe’s race, period. Enable (GB) is a two-time Arc winner and deserves to be an odds-on favorite. She towers over this group, but no Arc winner has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Turf. I will back Magical (IRE), Waldgeist (GB) and Talismanic (GB), the 2017 winner, to upset her. I expect this to be a 1-2-3-4 Euro finish.

Classic (5:44 ET): Accelerate has been the top older male dirt horse all year, but may not replicate his west coast form in Kentucky. Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn have the dubious distinction of each running 20th and last in their respective Kentucky Derbies in 2017 and 2018 at this track at this distance. Both races were run over a sloppy track that most Europeans simply cannot handle. Both look to make amends and will be my picks in a wide open renewal of the Classic.

Final piece of advice – Play the horses that you have followed all year and expect to run big — these are the ones that leap into your thoughts when you hear the words Breeders’ Cup. The runners you’ve admired all year may be in the toughest races of their lives, but they are also primed for the top efforts of their lives. Trust your inner handicapper and your intuition.

 

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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