BC DIRT MILE TREND by Caleb Keller

The Breeders Cup Dirt Mile is coming into its 12^th year as a World Championship race. Of the five tracks that have held this event, only Churchill Downs has a one turn mile configuration. When you look closer at the two Dirt Miles held under the Spires in 2010 and 2011, you will find a very common look for the horses who had success in those races. 

The top 3 finishers in both Churchill Downs dirt miles had two things in common. #1, they were all coming out of two turn route races. And #2, every horse in those two trifectas had a race within the last 60 days.

(See grid below)

With that being said, the two favorites in this year’s Dirt Mile, Catalina Cruiser and City of Light, are both coming off one turn races at 7 furlongs and also neither of them have raced within the last 60 days.

The dirt course at Churchill Downs is a track that is a very conducive to a late finishing kick and especially at the one turn configuration. In 2010 and 2011, the fastest finisher each year Dakota Phone and Caleb’s Posse both crossed the wire first. 

Luckily for Catalina Cruiser and City of Light, their supremely high talent levels seem to set them above their Dirt Mile counterparts this year. Yet if they are to go on and become a Breeders Cup champion they will have to buck a very prevalent trend at Churchill Downs. This race when held in Louisville has clearly suited horses with two turns races and recency to go along with it. 

This is a new age of racing where bringing horses in fresh and rested seems to be the new trend. We’ll see what wins out in this year’s Dirt mile; old trends or new ones.

2010  

Horse- Last race

1^st Dakota Phone- Goodwood 10/2/10

2^nd Morning Line- Pennsylvania Derby 9/25/10

3^rd Gayego- Presque Isle Mile 9/10/10

 

2011 

1^st Caleb’s Posse- Indiana Derby 10/1/11

2^nd Shackleford- Indiana Derby 10/1/11

3^rd Tres Borrachos- Goodwood 10/1/11

 

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