Race 8 (Saturday, July 21, 2018: 8:30 p.m./PT: 5:30 p.m./ET)
Mile on the turf (three-year-old fillies)
The 14-horse San Clemente (G2), the co-feature on the first Saturday Del Mar card of 2018, immediately catches the eye as a good-looking betting affair on paper. Let’s hunker down and come up with a winner in what appears to be a wide-open event:
#1 ROCKIN READY is one-for-five in her career, with four second place finishes. She lost by a nose to #3 FLAMMETTA last time out and will need to put up a career best effort to beat the majority of the competition slated to run here.
#2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR comes off a three-and-a-half month break after a second place finish behind the talented FATALE BERE in the Providencia (G3) on April 7. It’s worth noting she finished ahead of PAVED that day, too, and the aforementioned rival came back to win the Honeymoon (G3). Her last win came two starts back, defeating #12 LEXINGTON GRACE in the China Doll Stakes.
#3 FLAMETTA won a starter allowance sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita and came back to defeat #1 ROCKING READY on that same downhill course in her most recent afternoon appearance on June 23. She broke her maiden routing on the turf in gate to wire fashion in March but finished off-the-board when defeated by #13 MS. PEINTOUR in a separate route race in April. She should be showing speed, but there are other fillies signed on to go with her. Pass.
#4 MISS SIENNA (GB) adds blinkers in her second start in the United States. In her U.S. debut, the Phil D’Amato trainee sat in midfield and never really picked up her feet, finishing fourth behind #8 ANIMOSITY and #13 MS. PEINTOUR in the Honeymoon (G2) at Santa Anita. D’Amato only hits at 9% when adding the hood on his trainees, though it’s worth noting she attracts big money rider Mike Smith and it’s possible she could improve with a U.S. race under her belt. Interesting.
#5 AHIMSA tries routing for the first time. Her sire ANIMAL KINGDOM won the Kentucky Derby (G1) but her mother was a dirt sprinter. Two starts ago, this filly defeated #12 LEXINGTON GRACE in an allowance down the hill at Santa Anita and most recently finished off the board as the favorite after dueling on the lead. She showed speed in her downhill turf sprint, so expect her to be close to the pace here.
#6 DULCE RIDE broke her maiden racing down the hill at Santa Anita on June 10. This is not an easy spot to be facing winners for the first time, that’s for sure, and she has not routed since her first career race where she ran fourth behind a next out winner. It would be impressive if this filly could take this giant step up in class and beat all 13 of her competitors.
#7 STREAK OF LUCK has failed to win in a pair of Cal-bred allowance races and faces a lot tougher competition in this spot. A victory by this gal would be a surprise.
#8 ANIMOSITY knocked out two straight wins to kick off her career and came back to run a strong second to graded stakes winner PAVED in the Honeymoon (G2). Wouldn’t be surprised if she played a tracking role today, something she did when breaking her maiden sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita. If she can be effective rating in this route, she is in with a chance.
#9 WEST PALM BEACH (IRE) won an allowance race as the favorite in her first start in the United States on March 16, finishing in front of #7 STREAK OF LUCK and #13 MS. PEINTOUR. She came back about two months later in the Senorita (G3) and disappointed, finishing fifth at odds of 3/5. That said, it was reported she had a foot issue in the aforementioned race. If you’re willing to give her another shot, she’s appealing because she has always been well regarded and gets top turf connections in Flavien Prat and Simon Callaghan, who team up to win at a high 30% clip.
#10 WAR HEROINE will be the pace setter in this race. The daughter of LONHRO is two-for-two on turf, with both gate-to-wire wins coming over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. In fact, in one of those races she defeated #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR, a major player in this race. Her lone two-turn race resulted in a ten-length loss, but keep in in mind that run came when she shipped across country to Aqueduct and ran on dirt. Still, one has to wonder whether she wants to run this far.
#11 PURSUING THE DREAM (IRE) finished second in the Senorita (G3) before coming back to run a decent third in an allowance race on June 1, her most recent start to date. However, this James Cassidy trainee is just one-for-twelve in her career and gets her fourth different rider in four starts and she’ll need to run much faster to be competitive for the win.
#12 LEXINGTON GRACE (IRE) freshens up for her first start in a Grade 2 race after an allowance win going one mile at Santa Anita on June 3. Note that in two prior starts, this gal finished behind #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR and also ran third two starts ago as the favorite when defeated by #5 AHIMSA. May be better used underneath in exotics, especially when you consider now we’re starting to get to post positions that are far from desirable.
#13 MS. PEINTOUR easily defeated allowance company two starts ago, finishing ahead of next out winner CASINO RED that afternoon. After that win, she came back to run third behind graded stakes winner PAVED and #9 ANIMOSITY in the Honeymoon (G2) at Santa Anita. The post position she draws here is a concern and her speed figures are a notch below the best signed on here.
#14 OLLIE’S CANDY is an undefeated filly making her first start on the turf. She is by CANDY RIDE, a sire that has produced solid runners on all surfaces. After impressive wins at Golden Gate Fields in the first two starts of her career, she narrowly defeated the Bob Baffert trainee THIRTEEN SQUARED in the Summertime Oaks (G2) last time out. She’s another one that will need to overcome a poor post position in this spot and it’s also worth noting Kent Desormeuax rode her last time out and opts to ride #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR.
SELECTIONS
- #9 WEST PALM BEACH – Willing to give her another shot.
- #4 MS. SIENA – Adds blinkers and Mike Smith.
- #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR – Her last couple of turf routes have been solid.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#8 ANIMOSITY – She’s got ability,
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top three selections in exactas.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$20 Win: #9 WEST PALM BEACH
$5 Exacta Box: #2 MS. BAD BEHAVIOR and #4 MS SIENA and #9 WEST PALM BEACH ($30).
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