Race 11 (Friday, May 4, 2018: 6:12 p.m./ET; 3:12 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-old fillies)
A field of 14 fillies run for the lilies in the 144th edition of the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Led by favorites #10 MIDNIGHT BISOU and #14 MONOMOY GIRL, handicappers will have to decide if one of these two gals will prove to be the star three-year-old filly on the first Friday in May or could one of the other dozen runners pull off an upset? Our analysis begins with the rail runner:
#1 SASSY SIENNA stalked the pace before out gaming #5 WONDER GADOT to the wire in a thrilling edition of the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Before that, this daughter of MIDSHIPMAN ran third in the Honeybee (G3). This gal is improving at the right time and Brad Cox trains, which adds to the appeal considering he wins at a 30+% clip. One to consider.
#2 COACH ROCKS pulled away from her competition to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), defeating #9 TAKE CHARGE PAULA while racing wide in the final three furlongs. Just one race before, she broke her maiden by eight lengths while going two turns for the very first time. Clearly her first try against winners was a monstrous effort and maybe the light bulb has turned on for this filly, who took seven tries to break her maiden. That said, the best in here are tougher than what she saw in Florida. Interesting.
#3 CLASSY ACT ran fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) behind CHOCOLATE MARTINI, ESKIMO KISSES and WONDER GADOT. She has a ton of early speed, but her only two wins have come against non-graded stakes company. Will go off at a price.
#4 CHOCOLATE MARTINI was claimed by Tom Amoss for $30,000 after winning an allowance optional claimer two starts ago. He wheeled her back one month later in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and she pulled off a 13/1 shocker, defeating #13 ESKIMO KISSES and Fantasy Stakes (G3) runner up #5 WONDER GADOT. She’ll have to prove that the last run was no fluke, but she would be the claim of the year if she were to pull this off.
#5 WONDER GADOT ran a winning race but came up a nose short in the Fantasy (G3) last time out. Daughter of MEDAGLIA D’ORO runs a good race pretty much every time, which means you know you’re going to get a good effort from her if you use her on tickets. She has yet to prove that she can beat the very best slated to run here, however, and may be best used underneath in exotics.
#6 KELLY’S HUMOR was second in the one-turn Beaumont (G2) at Keenealand and stretches back out to two turns after that solid effort. The problem is she has been well beaten in her previous two route tries. Looks overmatched.
#7 RAYYA makes her first start in North America for the Bob Baffert barn. The Kentucky bred daughter of TIZ WONDERFUL won the UAE OAKS (G3) at Meydan before finishing a distant second to Kentucky Derby (G1) contender MENDELSSOHN in the UAE Derby (G2) against the boys. Clearly this gal has some talent and if anybody can win a Grade I race for three-year-olds, it’s her new trainer.
#8 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI ran third in the Davona Dale (G3) on March 3 going a (one-turn) mile and now stretches out an extra furlong. Her only two career victories have come going six furlongs. Looking elsewhere.
#9 TAKE CHARGE PAULA has finished second in her last two starts: the Davona Dale (G2) and Gulfstream Oaks (G2). In the GP Oaks (G2), she finished behind #2 COACH ROCKS, so she’ll have to find a way to rebound and defeat that rival while running against the best three-year-old dirt fillies the U.S. has to offer. Her better races have come going one turn and she may not be better as the distances get longer. Another one that this ‘capper will take a stand against.
#10 MIDNIGHT BISOU has been outstanding in her past two starts, including last time out in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) when she demolished the competition after making a big, sweeping run from the back of the field. She has improved with age and racing distance, has never finished worse than second in five lifetime starts and possesses versatility to where jockey Mike Smith can place her anywhere based on how the race unfolds. The one to beat.
#11 MY MISS LILLY is one of the more lightly raced runners in the field, with only four starts to date. The Kentucky-bred daughter of TAPIT comes off a gutsy win in the Gazelle (G2) and her connections paid $670,000 for her, so the expectations are high, but I’m siding with others.
#12 PATRONA MARGARITA was beaten by 13 lengths in the Ashland Stakes (G1) to MONOMOY GIRL and was also defeated by seven lengths when the aforementioned rival beat her in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Much improvement is needed.
#13 ESKIMO KISSES broke her maiden by a neck at Oaklawn and has since coming back to run second in both the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and the Ashland (G1). She won an allowance race in February by 11 lengths over a sloppy track, so she’s an interesting one to consider if the track comes up wet.
#14 MONOMOY GIRL was a decisive winner of the Ashland Stakes (G1), defeating ESKIMO KISSES and PATRONA MARGARITA with the greatest of ease. The third Brad Cox trainee in the field has won five of six lifetime starts, with her lone loss resulting in a narrow-neck defeat. And although she went gate to wire in the Ashland (G1), she made a last to first move to win the Rachel Alexandra (G3) two starts ago, so we know she is versatile, which only adds another positive note to her list of good qualities. Only negative is the poor post position.
SELECTIONS
- #10 MIDNIGHT BISOU – Getting better each and every race.
- #14 MONOMOY GIRL – Very talented, but drew poorly.
- #5 WONDER GADOT – Consistent.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 RAYYA – First time Baffert.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll go ‘all in’ on my top selection.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #10 MIDNIGHT BISOU
(Bankroll at -$466.90 after 2018 Week #6 Based on $50 Wagers; -$126.90 last Newsletter).
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